The details are coming into focus…

Two loan skiers under bright blue skies at Wolf Creek. Web cam capture on 11/21/2021

Two lone skiers under bright blue skies at Wolf Creek. Web cam capture on 11/21/2021

Sunday – 21 Nov 2021 – 9:50am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 49 and the low this morning was 22. The cold spots dipped into the lower to mid-teens this morning. The peak wind at the airfield in the last 24 hours was 9mph.

There were a few spotty snowshowers over the mountains yesterday, but I didn’t see any accumulation.

Forecast discussion…

Today and tomorrow will be mostly clear as transient ridging takes over.

A system will move through Tuesday and Wednesday giving us more clouds and some precip. Unfortunately the best storm energy and moisture will miss us.

Thanksgiving through Saturday ridging and drier northwest flow will give us pleasant weather.

Water vapor satellite this morning: We’re in between northwest flow to the north and southwest flow to the south.  The low currently well off the coast is going to team up with the system off the PNW coast to knock down the pesky ridge and bring us some snow Tuesday and Wednesday.
Water vapor satellite this morning: We’re in between northwest flow to the north and southwest flow to the south.  The low currently well off the coast is going to team up with the system off the PNW coast to knock down the pesky ridge and bring us some snow Tuesday and Wednesday.

My forecast…

Today and tomorrow… Expect clear blue skies. High temps today will be in the upper 40s to mid-50s and then tomorrow highs will be in the lower to upper 50s.  Lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

Winds will peak under 20mph.

Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday night… We’ll see more clouds and snowshowers. Initially the snow level will be around 8,500ft so the first few showers will be “rainflakes”.  Then the snow level will gradually drop to 6,000ft overnight.  The best chance for precip is between Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning. Spotty showers will linger into Wednesday afternoon in the valley and Wednesday evening in the mountains.

The high temps Tuesday will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s and lows will be in the 20s.  It will be cooler Wednesday with highs in the lower to mid-40s and lows mostly in the 5 to 15 degree range.

Snow amounts:

– Valley: around an inch

– Mountains: 2-5”

NBM snowfall to Wednesday at 11pm shows 0.5”-1” in the valley and 1-3” in our mountains.
NBM snowfall to Wednesday at 11pm shows 0.5”-1” in the valley and 1-3” in our mountains.
Euro snowfall to Wednesday at 11pm has increased to 4-6” in the valley and 6-9” in our mountains. It expects a band of heavy snow to set up briefly over the San Juans Tuesday night. The Euro is the outlier with the most snow.
Euro snowfall to Wednesday at 11pm has increased to 4-6” in the valley and 6-9” in our mountains. It expects a band of heavy snow to set up briefly over the San Juans Tuesday night. The Euro is the outlier with the most snow.
University of Utah GFS and Canadian model ensemble snowfall for Wolf Creek: This is one of my favorite products. The Canadian model average (dashed red line) is an inch.  The GFS model average (solid red line) is 3”. The overall average (solid dark blue line) is 2.5”.
University of Utah GFS and Canadian model ensemble snowfall for Wolf Creek: This is one of my favorite products. The Canadian model average (dashed red line) is an inch.  The GFS model average (solid red line) is 3”. The overall average (solid dark blue line) is 2.5”.
The NWS 72hr snowfall to 5am Wednesday shows 0.5” to 1” in the valley and 2-5” in the mountains. This product and other high resolution products do not capture the whole period yet. That will change later today when new products come out.
The NWS 72hr snowfall to 5am Wednesday shows 0.5” to 1” in the valley and 2-5” in the mountains. This product and other high resolution products do not capture the whole period yet. That will change later today when new products come out.

Summary: I’m cheering for the Euro but I think it’s overdoing the snow amounts.  At this point I’m going with the other models and lowered my snow totals a notch.

Thanksgiving through Saturday… We’ll see quite a bit of sun with occasional periods of mid and high clouds.  I don’t expect any precip.

On Thanksgiving highs will be in the lower to upper 40s and lows will be in the upper single digits to the upper teens.  Friday and Saturday highs will be in the lower to mid-50s and lows will be the lower teens to lower 20s.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4666 / 198913-4 / 1956

For those of you who like to “hear” our forecast, we are experimenting with a “dial up and text” forecast. Call 877-841-0247 and give it a try!

I’ll do posts daily through Thanksgiving.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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