Still on track for some snow next week…

The moon about to set this morning. Just a few minutes later it dipped behind a thick band of cirrus clouds. Pic taken 11/19/2021

Friday – 19 Nov 2021 – 10:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 50 and the low this morning was 20. The cold spots dipped into the lower to mid-teens this morning. The peak wind at the airfield in the last 24 hours was 8mph.

There was no precip in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

A weak trough will move through northern Colorado tomorrow. The snow will stay to our north and we’ll just see more clouds and gustier winds.

Sunday and Monday will be mostly clear as transient ridging takes over.

A system will move through Tuesday and Wednesday giving us more clouds and some precip. Unfortunately the storm will split with the best energy and moisture going around us.

Thanksgiving through Saturday a disorganized and unsettled pattern will give us a chance for spotty snow showers but it won’t amount to much.

*Water vapor satellite this morning: There are a bunch of mostly mid and upper level clouds across the western US associated with a flattening ridge and a weak system moving through the Pacific NW.*

Radar this morning: Precip is very spotty across the western US and mostly light - a result of a disorganized pattern lacking storm energy. — *Radar this morning: Precip is very spotty across the western US and mostly light – a result of a disorganized pattern lacking storm energy.*

My forecast…

The rest of today through Monday… Expect periods of mid and high level clouds, especially today and tomorrow.

High temps will be in the upper 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to upper 20s. Monday will be a few degrees warmer.

Winds will peak under 20mph except tomorrow when 20-25mph is likely.

Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday night… We’ll see more clouds and a chance for snowshowers. Highs will be in the 40s. Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper teens to upper 20s and then Wednesday night it will be cooler with lows in the lower teens to lower 20s.

Snowfall totals:

– Valley: 1-2”

– Mountains: 4-8”

We’re still 5 days out and the models are inconsistent, so I’ll tweak the details as the data improves. Pay close attention to the forecast if you’re traveling next week.

NBM snowfall to Thanksgiving at 11am shows 0.5”-1” in the valley and 3-6” in our mountains. — *NBM snowfall to Thanksgiving at 11am* *shows 0.5”-1” in the valley and 3-6” in our mountains.*

*Euro snowfall to Thanksgiving at 11am shows 2-3” in the valley and 6-8” in our mountains.*

University of Utah GFS and Canadian model ensemble snowfall for Wolf Creek: This is one of my favorite products. Things I key on… 1. There is a wide range of outcomes varying from zero to 24”. A wide range indicates inconsistency and uncertainty. 2. The Canadian model’s range is narrower leading me to have more confidence in it. 3. The Canadian model’s average is 3” indicated by the dashed red line. 4. The GFS model’s average is 6” but if I knock out the three outliers that are over 15”, that will drop its average into the 4-5” range. Then it agrees with the overall average indicated by the dark blue line. 5. The range of outcomes will narrow as the storm gets closer and the data gets better leading to better forecast confidence.

Summary: I think the Euro is overdoing snow a bit and I’m leaning towards the NBM. I’m sticking with my snow totals for now, but I’m concerned that I’ll have to decrease them a notch.

Thanksgiving through Saturday… We’ll see quite a bit of sun with periods of more clouds and spotty snow showers. The mountains could see another inch or two of snow, but I don’t expect any accumulation in the valley.

Highs will be in the upper 30s to upper 40s and lows will be in the upper single digits to the upper teens.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
45	65 / 1943	14	-6 / 1969

For those of you who like to “hear” our forecast, we are experimenting with a “dial up and text” forecast. Call 877-841-0247 and give it a try!

My next post will be Sunday morning and then I’ll do posts daily through Thanksgiving.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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