The moon about to set this morning. Just a few minutes later it dipped behind a thick band of cirrus clouds. Pic taken 11/19/2021
Friday – 19 Nov 2021 – 10:30am
At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 50 and the low this morning was 20. The cold spots dipped into the lower to mid-teens this morning. The peak wind at the airfield in the last 24 hours was 8mph.
There was no precip in the last 24 hours.
A weak trough will move through northern Colorado tomorrow. The snow will stay to our north and we’ll just see more clouds and gustier winds.
Sunday and Monday will be mostly clear as transient ridging takes over.
A system will move through Tuesday and Wednesday giving us more clouds and some precip. Unfortunately the storm will split with the best energy and moisture going around us.
Thanksgiving through Saturday a disorganized and unsettled pattern will give us a chance for spotty snow showers but it won’t amount to much.
The rest of today through Monday… Expect periods of mid and high level clouds, especially today and tomorrow.
High temps will be in the upper 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to upper 20s. Monday will be a few degrees warmer.
Winds will peak under 20mph except tomorrow when 20-25mph is likely.
Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday night… We’ll see more clouds and a chance for snowshowers. Highs will be in the 40s. Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper teens to upper 20s and then Wednesday night it will be cooler with lows in the lower teens to lower 20s.
– Valley: 1-2”
– Mountains: 4-8”
We’re still 5 days out and the models are inconsistent, so I’ll tweak the details as the data improves. Pay close attention to the forecast if you’re traveling next week.
Summary: I think the Euro is overdoing snow a bit and I’m leaning towards the NBM. I’m sticking with my snow totals for now, but I’m concerned that I’ll have to decrease them a notch.
Thanksgiving through Saturday… We’ll see quite a bit of sun with periods of more clouds and spotty snow showers. The mountains could see another inch or two of snow, but I don’t expect any accumulation in the valley.
Highs will be in the upper 30s to upper 40s and lows will be in the upper single digits to the upper teens.
Pagosa Springs historical data
|Average High||Record High / Year||Average Low||Record Low / Year|
|45||65 / 1943||14||-6 / 1969|
For those of you who like to “hear” our forecast, we are experimenting with a “dial up and text” forecast. Call 877-841-0247 and give it a try!
My next post will be Sunday morning and then I’ll do posts daily through Thanksgiving.