Pay close attention to the forecast if you’re traveling next week…

A few puffy little low-level clouds popped up over the mountains today. Pic taken 11/17/2021

A few puffy little low-level clouds popped up over the mountains today. Pic taken 11/17/2021

Wednesday – 17 Nov 2021 – 4:45pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 57 and the low this morning was 22. The cold spots dipped into the lower to mid-teens this morning. The peak wind at the airfield in the last 24 hours was 20mph.

There was no precip in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

The tail end of a frontal system moved through last night.  We saw mid and upper level clouds and unfortunately no precip.  Temps are a bit cooler today behind the system.

The pesky ridge is holding strong over the western US. The next system will knock down the ridge a bit as is moves through our area this weekend.  Just like the last system, we’ll just see mostly mid and upper level clouds with a few snowflakes possible in the high country.

Things are looking more interesting Tuesday and Wednesday. The models are all over the place but I think we’ll get some snow.

GeoColor satellite this morning: The ridge is holding strong over the western US and keeping much of the southwest US clear.
GeoColor satellite this morning: The ridge is holding strong over the western US and keeping much of the southwest US clear.

My forecast…

The rest of today through Monday… Expect lots of sun with periods of mid and high level clouds, especially Friday and Saturday. Our mountains might see a few snowflakes Saturday evening, but I don’t expect any accumulation.

High temps will be in the upper 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to upper 20s.

Winds will peak under 20mph except Saturday when 20-25mph is likely.

Tuesday afternoon to Thursday… We’ll see more clouds and a chance for snowshowers.  Timing and amounts are still in question, but here’s my first guess:

– Valley: 1-2”

– Mountains: 4-8”

Forecast confidence is low but I’ll dial in the specifics as the data gets better. Pay close attention to the forecast if you’re traveling next week.

NBM snowfall to Thanksgiving at 11pm shows 2-3” in the valley and 4-6” in our mountains.
NBM snowfall to Thanksgiving at 11pm shows 2-3” in the valley and 4-6” in our mountains.
Euro snowfall to Thanksgiving at 11pm shows 1-2” in the valley and 6-8” in our mountains.
Euro snowfall to Thanksgiving at 11pm shows 1-2” in the valley and 6-8” in our mountains.
GFS snowfall to Thanksgiving at 11pm shows zero in the valley and zero in our mountains. Boooo hissss!
GFS snowfall to Thanksgiving at 11pm shows zero in the valley and zero in our mountains. Boooo hissss!

The forecast models are fluctuating wildly so forecast confidence is low.  Forecast confidence will increase as the data gets better.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4765 / 197515-18 / 1907

For those of you who like to “hear” our forecast, we are experimenting with a “dial up and text” forecast. Call 877-841-0247 and give it a try!

My next post will be on Friday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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