Dry weather for at least the next 7 days…

“Red sky in the morning” doesn’t mean much today. Pic taken 11/15/2021

“Red sky in the morning” doesn’t mean much today. Pic taken 11/15/2021

Monday – 15 Nov 2021 – 9:25am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 56 and the low this morning was 26. The peak wind at the airfield in the last 24 hours was 7mph.

There was no precip in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

The pesky ridge is getting knocked down a bit by a system moving into the Pacific Northwest.  Unfortunately the storm will stay well to our north and we’ll just see a few more clouds. 

This weekend another system will do the same thing.  The northern part of the state will get a little precip, but I expect us to stay dry for the next 7 or 8 days.

The long range models are now hinting at a system around the 24th. I’m thankful to have something to keep an eye on!

Water vapor satellite this morning: The ridge has weakened a bit and moved a little farther east.  It’s going to keep the low pressure system currently moving into the Pacific Northwest to our north.  We’ll continue to see patches of mid and upper level clouds.
Water vapor satellite this morning: The ridge has weakened a bit and moved a little farther east.  It’s going to keep the low pressure system currently moving into the Pacific Northwest to our north.  We’ll continue to see patches of mid and upper level clouds.

My forecast…

Today through Sunday… Expect lots of sun with periods of mid and high level clouds. Our mountains might see a few snowflakes tomorrow night and then again this weekend, but I don’t expect any accumulation.

Temps today and tomorrow will still be on the warm side with highs in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows near 20 to the lower 30s. The warm spots will flirt with the record high of 66 today. Wednesday through Sunday temps will be closer to our seasonal averages with highs in the upper 40s to mid-50s and lows in the mid-teens to upper 20s.

Winds will stay under 20mph today, then increase to 20-25mph tomorrow, and then peak in the 15-20mph range the rest of the period.

NBM precip to next Thursday, 25 Nov, at 5am has none in our area. Other models are hinting at a system around the 24th.
NBM precip to next Thursday, 25 Nov, at 5am has none in our area. Other models are hinting at a system around the 24th.
Euro ensemble 15 day precip expects the pattern to get more active towards the end of the month. Anything beyond 7 days is fantasyland in forecast models but it gives us something to keep an eye on.
Euro ensemble 15 day precip expects the pattern to get more active towards the end of the month. Anything beyond 7 days is fantasyland in forecast models but it gives us something to keep an eye on.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4966 / 196717-1 / 1915

For those of you who like to “hear” our forecast, we are experimenting with a “dial up and text” forecast. Call 877-841-0247 and give it a try!

My next post will be Wednesday morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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