Brrr – it was chilly this morning!…

Huge thanks to Veterans and their families! (Picture credit: LifeJourneys / Getty Images)

Huge thanks to Veterans and their families! (Picture credit: LifeJourneys / Getty Images)

Thursday – 11 Nov 2021 – 8:10am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 54 and the low this morning was 19. Most of us bottomed out in the teens. The coldest I saw was 9 at Mark’s house, aka “Little Siberia”. The peak wind at the airfield in the last 24 hours was 19mph.

There was no precip in the last 24 hours.

Weather Underground temps this morning around 7am were mostly in the teens.  The coldest I saw was 9 just north of Hatcher Lake.
Weather Underground temps this morning around 7am were mostly in the teens.  The coldest I saw was 9 just north of Hatcher Lake.

Forecast discussion…

Ridging over the western US will keep our weather nice for at least the next 5-7 days with lots of sun and pleasant temps.

The models are hinting at a weak system late next week, but I’m skeptical.  The models also hint at a pattern change towards the end of the month, but I don’t see anything to get excited about.  La Nina, you’re not welcome here – go away!

GeoColor satellite this morning: Much of the southwest is clear.  The ridge off the West Coast will keep our weather nice for at least the next 5-7 days.
GeoColor satellite this morning: Much of the southwest is clear.  The ridge off the West Coast will keep our weather nice for at least the next 5-7 days.

My forecast…

Today through Wednesday… Enjoy the sun! Temps will be coolest today with highs in the low to mid-50s and lows in the mid-teens to upper 20s. The rest of this period highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be upper teens to lower 30s. Winds will stay under 20mph.

NBM precip to next Saturday, 20 Nov, at 11pm has no precip in our area. We're stuck in a typical La Nina northwest flow pattern - boooo hisssss!
NBM precip to next Saturday, 20 Nov, at 11pm has no precip in our area. We’re stuck in a typical La Nina northwest flow pattern – boooo hisssss!
Euro ensemble 15 day precip indicates a possible pattern change beginning around 22 Nov.  2” of snow in a 15 day period is pretty sad and even that 2” is in doubt. Unfortunately I don’t see any storms to get excited about for a while.
Euro ensemble 15 day precip indicates a possible pattern change beginning around 22 Nov.  2” of snow in a 15 day period is pretty sad and even that 2” is in doubt. Unfortunately I don’t see any storms to get excited about for a while.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5270 / 198918-10 / 1940

My next post will be Saturday morning.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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