Beautiful weather for a while…

Toner Mountain peaking through a cloud window – Pic taken 11/10/2021 at 7am

Toner Mountain peaking through a cloud window – Pic taken 11/10/2021 at 7am

Wednesday – 10 Nov 2021 – 9:05am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 55 and the low this morning was 36. The peak wind in the last 24 hours was 24mph.

24hr precip reports this morning…

CoCoRaHS 24hr precip reports range from zero to 0.08”
CoCoRaHS 24hr precip reports range from zero to 0.08”
NWS mesonet 24hr precip reports across Archuleta County range from 0.02” to 0.14”
NWS mesonet 24hr precip reports across Archuleta County range from 0.02” to 0.14”
Wolf Creek Pass looked slick this morning. Based on snotel and web cams, I estimate that Wolf Creek got 1-2” of new snow.
Wolf Creek Pass looked slick this morning. Based on snotel and web cams, I estimate that Wolf Creek got 1-2” of new snow.

Forecast discussion…

Ridging over the western US will keep our weather nice for the next 5-7 days with lots of sun and pleasant temps.

By Thursday/Friday next week, some models indicate a system while others expect nothing.  At this point, I think it will be similar to the one that just moved through – I don’t expect much.

Water vapor satellite this morning: Last night’s system has moved to our east.  The red arrows indicate strong upper level northwest flow.  The atmosphere is drying out on our side of the mountains.  The ridge off the West Coast will keep our weather nice for the next 5-7 days.
Water vapor satellite this morning: Last night’s system has moved to our east.  The red arrows indicate strong upper level northwest flow.  The atmosphere is drying out on our side of the mountains.  The ridge off the West Coast will keep our weather nice for the next 5-7 days.

My forecast…

Today through Tuesday… Expect lots of sun.

Temps will be coolest today and tomorrow with highs the upper 40s to mid-50s and lows in the mid-teens to upper 20s. The rest of this period highs will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be upper teens to upper 20s.

Winds will peak in the 20-25mph range today and tomorrow and then stay under 20mph the rest of the period.

NBM precip to next Saturday, 20 Nov, at 5am has no precip in our area.
NBM precip to next Saturday, 20 Nov, at 5am has no precip in our area.
The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook indicates a 33-40% chance for below normal precip.  Unless a surprise system pops up, I think it’s more like a 75% chance.
The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook indicates a 33-40% chance for below normal precip.  Unless a surprise system pops up, I think it’s more like a 75% chance.
The CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook indicates a 40-50% chance for above normal temps.
The CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook indicates a 40-50% chance for above normal temps.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5369 / 1980180 / 1948

My next post will be Friday morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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