Fun morning! Spotty showers through the afternoon…

Wolf Creek Ski cam 10/26/2021 at 12:51pm

Wolf Creek Ski cam 10/26/2021 at 12:51pm

Tuesday – 26 Oct 2021 – 1:05pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 66 and today it was 50 at 7:35am just ahead of the cold front.  The low this morning was 36 at 10am as the front moved through.  The peak wind was 39mph.

Heavy rain, ice pellets, graupel, a few snowflakes, gusty winds, and even a few thunderous BOOMS moved through the area between 8:30 and 10:30.  Wolf Creek Pass had brief periods of white-out conditions. 

Precip in the last 24 hours…

Based on snotel and web cams, I estimate that the Wolf Creek area got 3-5”. Precip in the valley so far averaged 0.15” to 0.30”.  I’ll do a more thorough summary tomorrow morning and include graphics.

Forecast discussion…

As I type, we’re in a lull between the cold front that pushed to our east and the upper level trough still to our west.  Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm are likely through the early evening ahead of the trough.

Ridging will build into the area the rest of the week and give us lots of sun and seasonal temps.

Now the models are hinting at a more active pattern change starting the 2nd or 3rd

Infrared satellite this afternoon: Showers will increase a bit this afternoon as the trough moves through.
Infrared satellite this afternoon: Showers will increase a bit this afternoon as the trough moves through.
Radar this afternoon: It isn’t showing all of the showers in the Four Corner area, but if you line this up with the satellite image above, you can see that we’ll catch the tail end of the trough and will see more showers this afternoon.
Radar this afternoon: It isn’t showing all of the showers in the Four Corner area, but if you line this up with the satellite image above, you can see that we’ll catch the tail end of the trough and will see more showers this afternoon.

My forecast…

Today… Clouds and showers will be scattered through the early evening and then clear out after midnight.  The snow level is currently around 9,000ft and will drop to 7,500 by this evening. By the time the snow level drops to 7,500ft, precip will be ending.  An isolated thunderstorm is still possible along with a mix of precip.  Patchy fog will develop early tomorrow morning in the low lying areas.

Highs this afternoon will be around 40 to the upper 40s and lows tonight will be in the mid-teens to upper 20s. Winds will peak in the 25-30mph range.

Additional snow…

Below 8,500ft in the valley: “rainflakes” and no accumulation

Above 9,000ft: 1-3”

*** There is still a Winter Weather Advisory for the eastern San Juans above 10,000ft which includes Wolf Creek Pass, valid to midnight tonight. A total of 6” of snow is possible with winds to 50mph. *** Driving conditions on Wolf Creek Pass will be poor through the evening.

NWS snowfall for the San Juans shows another 1-3” in our mountains
NWS snowfall for the San Juans shows another 1-3” in our mountains

Wednesday through Sunday… Expect lots of sun.  Temps will be the coolest Wednesday with highs in the lower to upper 50s and lows in the upper teens to upper 20s.  The rest of the period highs will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s and lows will be lower 20s to mid-30s.

Euro 120hr precip from Wednesday morning to Monday morning shows no precip in southern Colorado
Euro 120hr precip from Wednesday morning to Monday morning shows no precip in southern Colorado

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6080 / 1943229 / 1997

My next post will be tomorrow morning.  Keep an ear out for a word from Pagosa Weather on KWUF!

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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