Lots of sun and seasonal temps through the weekend…

Cimarrona after the storm clouds cleared – Pic taken 10/26/2021

Cimarrona after the storm clouds cleared – Pic taken 10/26/2021

Wednesday – 27 Oct 2021 – 8:45am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 50 at 7:35am just ahead of the cold front.  Then the temperature dropped to 36 at 10am as the front moved through. The low this morning was 23.  The peak wind in the last 24 hours was 39mph.

Weather Underground temps this morning ranged from 14 to 23
Weather Underground temps this morning at 7:13am ranged from 14 to 23

Precip in the last 24 hours…

CoCoRaHS 24hr precip reports range from 0.15" to 0.26" and included rain, graupel, ice pellets, and snow
CoCoRaHS 24hr precip reports range from 0.15″ to 0.26″ and included rain, graupel, ice pellets, and snow
NWS mesonet 24hr precip reports range from 0.16” to 0.36”. I estimate that 5-7” of snow fell in the Wolf Creek area.
NWS mesonet 24hr precip reports range from 0.16” to 0.36”. I estimate that 5-7” of snow fell in the Wolf Creek area.

Science stuff… I expected patchy fog this morning in low lying areas, instead we “frosted out”.  Fog is formed by condensation – gas changing to a liquid.  Frost is formed by deposition – gas changing to a solid. We cooled so rapidly last night, we skipped condensation and deposition took over to give us frost.

Diagram showing the 6 phase changes of matter (source Encyclopedia Britannica)
Diagram showing the 6 phase changes of matter (source Encyclopedia Britannica)

Forecast discussion…

Ridging will build into the area the rest of the week and give us lots of sun and seasonal temps.

The models are hinting at a more active pattern starting as early as Sunday night.  Unfortunately the models are all over the place, so I don’t trust them.

Water vapor satellite this morning: There is still a little bit of moisture nosing into northwest CO.  Our San Juan Mountains will act as a barrier and keep those clouds on the other side.
Water vapor satellite this morning: There is still a little bit of moisture nosing into northwest CO.  Our San Juan Mountains will act as a barrier and keep those clouds on the other side. The ridge along the West Coast will keep our weather nice through the weekend.

My forecast…

Today through Sunday… Expect lots of sun.  Temps will be the coolest today with highs in the upper 40s to mid-50s and lows tonight will be in the upper teens to upper 20s.  The rest of the period highs will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s and lows will be lower 20s to mid-30s.

Meteograms are one of my favorite forecasting tools.  There is whole bunch of data on one chart making them easy to track.  This is the GFS 10-day meteogram for Pagosa. It has a couple of blips of moisture Sunday night/Monday morning that add up to a trace and then hardly anything else… booooo hisssss
Meteograms are one of my favorite forecasting tools.  There is whole bunch of data on one chart making them easy to track.  This is the GFS 10-day meteogram for Pagosa. It has a couple of blips of moisture Sunday night/Monday morning that add up to a trace and then hardly anything else… booooo hisssss
This is the Euro 10-day meteogram for Pagosa. It expects 0.4” of liquid Sunday night/Monday and then another 0.5” Tuesday to Wednesday night. When the forecast models are inconsistent like this, our forecast confidence is low.  However, not only do I usually prefer the Euro, but I always cheer for the model with the most snow… GO EURO!
This is the Euro 10-day meteogram for Pagosa. It expects 0.4” of liquid Sunday night/Monday and then another 0.5” Tuesday to Wednesday night. When the forecast models are inconsistent like this, our forecast confidence is low.  However, not only do I usually prefer the Euro, but I always cheer for the model with the most snow… GO EURO!

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5973 / 1910228 / 1913

*** This is the last day to make guess in our latest contest: When we will have 24” of snow on the ground?” Make a guess either on the contest web page or the original Facebook post that was sent on 20 Oct 2021. A HUGE thanks to Tall Pines Beer and Wine Garden for sponsoring the contest! ***

My next post will be on Friday.  Also keep an ear out for a word from Pagosa Weather on KWUF!

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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