Wet tomorrow – mostly rain in the valley and 3-6″ of snow above 10,000ft…

Beautiful sunrise over Wolf Creek this morning! Wolf Creek Ski cam 10/25/2021 at 7:07am

Monday – 25 Oct 2021 – 8:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 61 and the low this morning was 32. The cold spots have dipped into the mid to upper 20s the last two mornings. The peak wind was 24mph.

There was no precip in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

The scraps of the West Coast “atmospheric river” event will move into our area tonight and tomorrow. Moisture will increase and we’ll see mostly rain in the valley and snow in the mountains.

Ridging will build into the area the rest of the week and give us lots of sun and seasonal temps.

Things are looking pretty quiet into the first week of November.

Infrared satellite this morning: The trough is moving onto the California coast and headed this way. Mid and upper level clouds ahead of the trough are moving through UT and CO. The thicker clouds over CA and western NV are the heavy precip band.

*Radar this morning: It lines up nicely with satellite showing the main precip band in CA and western NV.*

My forecast…

Today… There will be lots of sun with a few clouds and then clouds will increase this evening. Highs will be lower to upper 60s and lows will be lower 30s to lower 40s. Winds will peak in the 20-25mph range.

Tonight and tomorrow… We’ll see more clouds and occasional showers. The best chance for precip is early tomorrow morning to tomorrow afternoon. Initially the snow level will be around 11,000ft and then drop to 8,000 by Tuesday evening. By the time the snow level drops to 8,000ft, precip will be ending. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible.

Highs Tuesday will be in the lower 40s to around 50 and lows Tuesday night will be in the mid-teens to upper 20s. Winds will peak in the 25-35mph range.

Snow totals…

Below 8,500ft in the valley: mostly rain with a few “rainflakes” and no accumulation

Above 10,000ft: 3-6”

*** The Pueblo NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the eastern San Juans above 10,000ft which includes Wolf Creek Pass. It’s valid from 6am Tuesday morning to midnight Tuesday. Up to 6” of snow is possible with winds to 50mph. *** Driving conditions on Wolf Creek Pass will be poor tomorrow.

*NWS snowfall for the San Juans shows 3-6” in our mountains and up to 10” on the other side of the San Juans and along highway 550.*

Wednesday through Friday… Expect lots of sun. Temps will be the coolest Wednesday with highs in the lower to upper 50s and lows in the upper teens to upper 20s. Thursday and Friday highs will be in the upper 50s to mid-60s and lows will be lower 20s to mid-30s.

*Euro 120hr precip from Wednesday morning to Monday morning shows no precip in southern Colorado*

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
60	75 / 1988	22	8 / 1975

My next post will be tomorrow around lunchtime.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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