Mountain snowshowers tonight and then again Monday night and Tuesday…

A bird’s eye view of standing lenticular clouds. Pagosa Peak is center left.  Pic taken 10/22/2021

A bird’s eye view of standing lenticular clouds. Pagosa Peak is center left.  Pic taken 10/22/2021

Saturday – 23 Oct 2021 – 9:50am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 64 and the low this morning was 29.  The cold spots have dipped into the lower to mid-20s the last two mornings. The peak wind was 17mph.

There was no precip in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

A series of storms and an “atmospheric river” event is going to hit the West Coast but the storms will weaken as they move through Colorado.  Our first bit of scraps will be tonight with a few snowshowers possible in the mountains.  The second bit of scraps will be a little stronger, but I still don’t expect much when it moves through Monday night and Tuesday.

Unfortunately I don’t see any decent storms for us the rest of the month.  Let’s hope something pops up!

Water vapor satellite this morning: A band of mid and upper level clouds is upstream and will move over us this afternoon.  As these systems move east, they lose upper level support and weaken.  When the trough currently moving through the Great Basin moves through our area tomorrow morning, there won’t be much left of it.
Water vapor satellite this morning: A band of mid and upper level clouds is upstream and will move over us this afternoon.  As these systems move east, they lose upper level support and weaken.  When the trough currently moving through the Great Basin moves through our area tomorrow morning, there won’t be much left of it.
Radar this morning: It’s raining in the Salt Lake area, but the rest of the precip in the Four Corners states is not reaching the ground.
Radar this morning: It’s raining in the Salt Lake area, but the rest of the precip in the Four Corners states is not reaching the ground.

My forecast…

Today through Monday afternoon… Mid and high level clouds will increase this afternoon leading to spotty showers over the mountains tonight.  Snow accumulations will be under an inch in the mountains. We’ll continue to see periods with mid and upper level clouds the rest of this period.

** Make sure to check out the CDOT Wolf Creek Pass cams tomorrow morning if you plan to drive over the pass. **

Highs will be mid-50s to mid-60s and lows will be low 20s to the mid-30s.

Winds will peak in the 20-25mph range each afternoon.

NWS snowfall for tonight’s system shows less than an inch in our mountains and 3-6” in the central and northern mountains.
NWS snowfall for tonight’s system shows less than an inch in our mountains and 3-6” in the central and northern mountains.

Monday evening and Tuesday… We’ll see more clouds and spotty showers.  The best chance for precip is Monday at midnight to Tuesday at noon.  Initially the snow level will be around 11,000ft and then drop to 8,000 by Tuesday afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible.

Highs Tuesday will be in the lower 40s to around 50 and lows Tuesday night will be in the upper teens to upper 20s. Winds will peak in the 25-30mph range.

Snow totals…

Below 8,000ft: mostly rain with a few “rainflakes” and no accumulation

Above 8,000ft in the valley: up to an inch, but it will be spotty

Above 10,000ft: 2-4”

NBM snowfall through Tuesday at midnight shows 1-4” in our mountains and 6-12” in the central and northern mountains.
NBM snowfall through Tuesday at midnight shows 1-4” in our mountains and 6-12” in the central and northern mountains.
NBM liquid precip across the Southwest US through Tuesday at midnight has impressive amounts for northern CA.  Now compare that to the precip for western CO.  This is a classic example of us getting “scraps”.
NBM liquid precip across the Southwest US through Tuesday at midnight has impressive amounts for northern CA.  Now compare that to the precip for western CO.  This is a classic example of us getting “scraps”.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6076 / 194623-2 / 1908

Unless something interesting pops up, my next post will be on Monday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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4 Responses

  1. Uh oh. That 8.2 inches of precipitation in California looks to be exactly where the big wildfires were this year. Might cause some bad mudslides.

      1. I’ve been looking at that hike for a while but haven’t done it yet. What is the best route? Do you come from the south and take the Pine-Piedra Trail (#524) from 631? Is there a marked trail to the summit? It looks like another possibility is to take the Sand Creek trail from 631 and intersect Pine-Piedra and approach the peak from the north.

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