The West Coast will get hammered and we’ll get scraps…

A few Army helicopters passed through Pagosa Country yesterday. I spent most of my military career providing weather forecasts to these fine folks! Pic taken 10/20/2021

A few Army helicopters passed through Pagosa Country yesterday. I spent most of my military career providing weather forecasts to these fine folks! Pic taken 10/20/2021

Thursday – 21 Oct 2021 – 3:35pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 57 and so far today it’s been 59. The low this morning was 27.  The cold spots have dipped into the upper teens to low 20s the last two mornings. The peak wind was 9mph.

There was no significant precip in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

A series of storms is going to hit the West Coast but the storms will weaken as they move through Colorado.  Our first bit of scraps will be Saturday night with a few snowshowers possible in the mountains.  The second bit of scraps will be a little stronger, but I still don’t expect much when it moves through Monday night and Tuesday.

Unfortunately I don’t see any decent storms for us the rest of the month.  Let’s hope something pops up!

Water vapor satellite this afternoon: Mid and upper level clouds are moving through the area from the southwest. There is no precip associated with these clouds.  The first bands of heavy precip are currently moving onto the Pacific Northwest Coast.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon: Mid and upper level clouds are moving through the area from the southwest. There is no precip associated with these clouds.  The first bands of heavy precip are currently moving onto the Pacific Northwest Coast.

My forecast…

Tomorrow through Monday afternoon… We’ll see periods of mid and high level clouds and stay dry.  Saturday night is the exception with a few more clouds and spotty showers over the mountains.  Snow accumulations will be under an inch.

Highs will be mid-50s to mid-60s and lows will be low 20s to the mid-30s.

Winds will be under 20mph except Saturday afternoon when gusts to 25mph are likely.

NBM snowfall through Sunday at noon shows a few small spots of a dusting in the South San Juans. 1-2” is possible in the central and northern mountains.
NBM snowfall through Sunday at noon shows a few small spots of a dusting in the South San Juans. 1-2” is possible in the central and northern mountains.

Monday evening and Tuesday… We’ll see more clouds and spotty showers.  The best chance for precip is Monday at midnight to Tuesday at noon.

Highs Tuesday will be in the upper 40s to mid-50s and lows Tuesday night will be in the upper teens to upper 20s. Winds will peak in the 25-30mph range.

Snow totals…

Below 8,000ft: dusting

Above 8,000ft in the valley: up to an inch

Above 10,000ft: 2-4”

NBM snowfall through Tuesday at midnight shows 1-4” in our mountains and 3-8” in the central and northern mountains.
NBM snowfall through Tuesday at midnight shows 1-4” in our mountains and 3-8” in the central and northern mountains.
NBM liquid precip across the Southwest US through Tuesday at midnight has impressive amounts for northern CA.  Now compare that to the precip for western CO.  This is a classic example of us getting “scraps”.
NBM liquid precip across the Southwest US through Tuesday at midnight has impressive amounts for northern CA.  Now compare that to the precip for western CO.  This is a classic example of us getting “scraps”.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6077 / 194024-5 / 1910

Unless something interesting pops up, my next post will be Saturday morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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