Clouds clearing today then nice through Sunday…

Wolf Creek Pass looks a bit slick this morning but should clear up by noon. CDOT web cam 10/19/2021 at 8:30am (this time is off one hour)

Tuesday – 19 Oct 2021 – 9:50am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 63 and the low this morning was 36. The peak wind was 45mph and it occurred at 1:35am ahead of the front.

We got more precip than I expected – an overproducer! Based on snotels and web cams I estimate Wolf Creek Pass got 2-4” of snow.

*CoCoRaHS 24hr precip reports range from a trace to 0.33”*

*NWS mesonet 24hr precip totals in Archuleta County range from 0.01” to 0.24”*

Forecast discussion…

We caught the tail-end of the front this morning and got stronger winds and more than precip than I expected. Clouds and showers will clear out today after noon. Ridging will build over the region the rest of the week and give us nice fall weather.

Long range models have been going back and forth on a potential system moving through next Tuesday. Details are still very much in doubt at this point.

*Water vapor satellite this morning: The tail-end of the cold front moved through this morning. The low will continue to track northeast and clouds will clear out this afternoon.*

*Radar this morning: Radar isn’t showing all of the precip, but it lines up well with satellite. Weather observations across southwest CO and southeast UT don’t indicate any precip.*

My forecast…

Today… Mostly cloudy skies this morning will give way to partly cloudy skies this afternoon. Spotty showers will end over the mountains by noon. A dusting of additional snow is possible. Patchy fog is also possible tomorrow morning in the low-lying areas.

High temps today will be in the upper 40s to mid-50s. Lows tonight will be in the mid-teens to upper 20s.

Winds will peak around 25mph this afternoon.

Tomorrow through Sunday… The glorious fall weather will continue! Expect lots of sun and chilly mornings.

Highs will be mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be upper teens to low 30s. (I don’t like forecasting big temp ranges but it’s common this time of year with our elevation differences.)

*Euro precip between midnight tonight and midnight Sunday keeps most of the state dry.*

Monday and Tuesday… I’m keeping an eye on our next potential weather system.

*GFS surface precip valid on Tuesday at noon shows a pretty decent system moving through. The models are all over the place with this one, so forecast confidence is low.*

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
62	79 / 1991	25	10 / 1976

Unless something interesting pops up, my next post will be Thursday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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2 Responses

Linda espinosa says:

October 19, 2021 at 10:06 am

Thanks, Shawn for morning weather report. I cN plan my day by your forecasts.
Your neighbor,
Linda

Reply
1. Shawn says:
  
  October 19, 2021 at 1:35 pm
  
  Thanks Linda!
  
  Reply

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