Spotty showers tomorrow morning then nice through Sunday…

A weak trough is moving through and kicking up a few showers this morning. Pic taken 10/18/2021

A weak trough is moving through and kicking up a few showers this morning. Pic taken 10/18/2021

Monday – 18 Oct 2021 – 9:25am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 64 and the low this morning was 36.  The peak wind was 18mph.

There was no significant precip in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

A weak trough is moving through now and kicking up a few spotty showers.  A stronger trough will move through tomorrow morning, but most of the moisture and storm energy will stay to our north.  Ridging will build over the region the rest of the week and give us nice fall weather.

Water vapor satellite this morning: There’s hardly anything left of the trough moving through now.  The next system is currently moving across the Great Basin and will track across the northwest corner of Colorado tomorrow.
Water vapor satellite this morning: There’s hardly anything left of the trough moving through now.  The next system is currently moving across the Great Basin and will track across the northwest corner of Colorado tomorrow.
Radar this morning: Radar isn’t picking up anything in our area which means these showers are all below 25,000ft. Precip with the next system over the Great Basin is also not impressive.
Radar this morning: Radar isn’t picking up anything in our area which means these showers are all below 25,000ft. Precip with the next system over the Great Basin is also not impressive.

My forecast…

Today through tomorrow… Mostly cloudy skies this morning will give way to partly cloudy skies this afternoon.  Clouds will increase again tonight and then gradually clear again tomorrow afternoon.  Spotty showers over the mountains will end by noon today and are possible again tomorrow early morning through early afternoon.

High temps today will be in the mid-50s to lower 60s and tomorrow will be a little cooler with highs in the lower to upper 50s. Lows tonight will be in the mid-20s to upper 30s and tomorrow they’ll be in the mid-teens to upper 20s.

Winds will peak in the 25-30mph range both afternoons.

We could see a few snowflakes tomorrow morning in the valley, but I don’t expect any accumulation.  Lucky spots in the mountains could see up to 1.50” of snow.  Be careful driving over the Wolf Creek Pass tomorrow morning.

NWS 72hr snowfall: Up to an inch and a half inch of snow is possible in our mountains
NWS 72hr snowfall: Up to an inch and a half inch of snow is possible in our mountains
NWS snowfall for the state shows the Park Range near Steamboat getting the most snow
NWS snowfall for the state shows the Park Range near Steamboat getting the most snow

Wednesday through Sunday… The glorious fall weather will continue!  Expect lots of sun and chilly mornings.

Highs will be mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be upper teens to low 30s.  (I don’t like forecasting big temp ranges but it’s common this time of year with our elevation differences.)

Euro precip between Tuesday evening and Sunday evening keeps most of the state dry.
Euro precip between Tuesday evening and Sunday evening keeps most of the state dry.
The Euro ensemble 15 day precip model shows us mostly dry until the last week of the month.
The Euro ensemble 15 day precip model shows us mostly dry until the last week of the month.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6480 / 1951258 / 1968

Unless something interesting pops up, my next post will be Wednesday morning.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Picture of Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

 

© 2024 Pagosa Weathe

Website Design by : Brandon