Nice for the next 7 days…

Fresh snow in the high country and spots of fall colors are hanging on – it’s beautiful! Pic taken 10/15/2021

Fresh snow in the high country and spots of fall colors are hanging on – it’s beautiful! Pic taken 10/15/2021

Saturday – 16 Oct 2021 – 9:50am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 50 and the low this morning was 25.  Some spots were in the upper teens this morning. The peak wind was 9mph. 

Yesterday morning there were a few spots in the low teens, but I didn’t see any upper single digits like I forecast.

There was no significant precip in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Today and tomorrow will be sunny with warmer temps as a ridge builds over the region. A weak trough will try to move through Sunday night and early Monday and then an even weaker one will move through Tuesday, otherwise it looks like we’re “stuck” with nice dry weather for at least the next 7 days.

GeoColor satellite this morning: Most of the western US is clear.  It’s great to see snow on the Colorado Rockies! Tomorrow night’s system is still off the coast. It will be a weak system and the moisture and storm energy will stay to our north.
GeoColor satellite this morning: Most of the western US is clear.  It’s great to see snow on the Colorado Rockies! Tomorrow night’s system is still off the coast. It will be a weak system and the moisture and storm energy will stay to our north.

My forecast…

Today and most of tomorrow… We’ll see lots of bright sunny skies and warmer temps – it’s going to be nice!  Highs will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s and lows will be around 20 to the lower 30s. Winds will be less than 20mph.

Tomorrow evening through Monday morning… There will be a few more clouds and a few spotty showers, mostly over the mountains.  A few lucky spots in the mountains could get an inch of snow.  Wolf Creek Pass could have slick spots Monday morning.

NWS 72hr snowfall: You have to look closely to see up to a half inch of snow in our mountains
NWS 72hr snowfall: You have to look closely to see up to a half inch of snow in our mountains

Monday afternoon through Saturday… The glorious fall weather will continue!  Expect lots of sun and chilly mornings. There will be a few more clouds Tuesday, but we won’t see any precip.

Highs will be mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be upper teens to low 30s.  (I don’t like forecasting big temp ranges but it’s common this time of year with our elevation differences.)

Winds Monday afternoon will peak around 25mph.

Euro precip between Tuesday and next Sunday at noon shows none for southern Colorado.
Euro precip between Tuesday and next Sunday at noon shows none for southern Colorado.
The Euro ensemble 15 day precip model shows us dry for the next 7 days and then a possible pattern change towards the end of the month.
The Euro ensemble 15 day precip model shows us dry for the next 7 days and then a possible pattern change towards the end of the month.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6478 / 19582611 / 1956

In case you missed it, make sure to check out Arleen’s excellent Winter Outlook post!

Unless something interesting pops up, my next post will be Monday morning.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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