Spotty showers today…

Clouds and fall colors are hanging on! Pic taken 10/14/2021

Clouds and fall colors are hanging on! Pic taken 10/14/2021

Thursday – 14 Oct 2021 – 9:45am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 40.  The low this morning was 27.  We bottomed out mostly in the lower to upper 20s. These dang clouds still haven’t cleared out which is keeping our lows warmer than I forecast.

Thick fog developed in O’Neal Park around 9:45pm and then broke up sometime during the night.  I still see patches of fog this morning.

There was no significant precip in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

A weak trough that lacks moisture and upper level energy will move through this evening and kick up a few a spotty showers.  This one will favor northern Colorado.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will be sunny with warmer temps as a ridge builds over the region. Another weak trough will try to move through Monday, otherwise it looks like we’re “stuck” with nice dry weather for at least the next 10 days.

Water vapor satellite this morning: A weak low is over southwest WY and a poorly defined trough extends through eastern UT. There isn’t much moisture or storm energy.
Water vapor satellite this morning: A weak low is over southwest WY and a poorly defined trough extends through eastern UT. There isn’t much moisture or storm energy.
Radar this morning: The heaviest band of showers is moving along the I-70 mountain corridor. Most of the precip will stay to our north. (As always, because of poor radar coverage, not all precip is shown.)
Radar this morning: The heaviest band of showers is moving along the I-70 mountain corridor. Most of the precip will stay to our north. (As always, because of poor radar coverage, not all precip is shown.)

My forecast…

Today… There will be more clouds and spotty afternoon and early evening showers, especially over the mountains.  Highs will be in the mid-40s to lower 50s and lows will range from the upper single digits to upper teens.  ** Tomorrow’s record low of 14 might fall! ** Winds will peak in the 25-30mph range this afternoon.

I expect 1-2” of snow in the mountains and no significant accumulation in the valley. Wolf Creek Pass could be slick by late afternoon and into the evening.

NWS 72hr snowfall for our area shows 1-2” in our mountains and 3-6” in the northern San Juans.
NWS 72hr snowfall for our area shows 1-2” in our mountains and 3-6” in the northern San Juans.
Radar this morning: The heaviest band of showers is moving along the I-70 mountain corridor. Most of the precip will stay to our north. (As always, because of poor radar coverage, not all precip is shown.)
Radar this morning: The heaviest band of showers is moving along the I-70 mountain corridor. Most of the precip will stay to our north. (As always, because of poor radar coverage, not all precip is shown.)

Friday through Wednesday… Back to glorious fall weather!  Expect lots of sun and chilly mornings. There will be a few more clouds on Monday, but I don’t expect any precip.

Friday will be the coolest with highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid-50s and then the weekend will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s.  Friday night lows will be lower teens to lower 20s and then the rest of the weekend they’ll be in the upper teens to upper 20s.

The Euro ensemble 15 day precip model shows us dry for the next 10 days and then a possible pattern change towards the end of the month.
The Euro ensemble 15 day precip model shows us dry for the next 10 days and then a possible pattern change towards the end of the month.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6685 / 19402613 / 1975

Unless something interesting pops up, my next post will be Saturday morning.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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