Spotty showers tomorrow then nice this weekend!…

Fall meets winter in Pagosa Country! Pic taken 10/13/2021

Fall meets winter in Pagosa Country! Pic taken 10/13/2021

Wednesday – 13 Oct 2021 – 2:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 48 and it occurred at 6am.  The low this morning was 31 –- 10 to 15 degrees warmer than I expected. The clouds didn’t clear out which kept our low temps a bit warmer.  We bottomed out mostly in the mid-20s to low 30s.  South Fork cleared out and their temps were in the mid-teens and the perpetually cold-morning Creede bottomed out in the 5 to 10 degree range…brrrr!

The peak wind at the airfield was 38mph and I saw a couple of other spots hit 40mph. Wolf Creek’s weather sensor hit 55mph yesterday morning and then stopped reporting.  When weather equipment fails during the worst weather, we jokingly call it “weather protect mode”.

Precip in the last 24 hours…

Average snowfall across the valley was 1-3”.  Wolf Creek Pass closed for about 5 hours yesterday after several vehicles, including large commercial vehicles, spun out, and a semi-truck jackknifed and blocked both lanes.  Wolf Creek Ski Area hit the upper end of my snow forecast with 14”.  They announced at 1:15pm today that they will have a limited weekend opening!

CoCoRaHS 24hr snowfall reports vary from 0.4” to 3.9”
A HUGE thanks to the CoCoRaHS observers and everyone else who reported snowfall amounts!
CoCoRaHS 24hr snowfall reports vary from 0.4” to 3.9”
A HUGE thanks to the CoCoRaHS observers and everyone else who reported snowfall amounts!

Forecast discussion…

Tonight clouds will gradually clear and it will get chilly. 

Tomorrow a weak, fast moving trough will kick up a few a spotty showers.  This one will favor northern Colorado.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will be sunny with warmer temps as a ridge builds over the region. And unfortunately, it looks like we’re “stuck” with nice dry weather for at least the next 10 days.

GeoColor satellite this afternoon: Lots of low level clouds are hanging on across western Colorado. Tomorrow’s trough is beginning to get organized as it moves through ID and the Great Basin.  It will stay weak and track across northern Colorado
GeoColor satellite this afternoon: Lots of low level clouds are hanging on across western Colorado. Tomorrow’s trough is beginning to get organized as it moves through ID and the Great Basin.  It will stay weak and track across northern Colorado

My forecast…

Tonight… Clouds will gradually clear and lows will be in the teens. Patchy morning fog is possible.

Thursday… There will be more clouds and spotty afternoon showers, especially over the mountains.  Highs will be in the mid-40s to lower 50s and lows will range from the upper single digits to upper teens.  Winds will peak around 30mph.

I expect up to an inch of snow in the mountains and no significant accumulation in the valley.

NWS 72hr snowfall for the San Juans shows up to an inch in our mountains and around 4” near Silverton
NWS 72hr snowfall for the San Juans shows up to an inch in our mountains and around 4” near Silverton
NWS snowfall forecast for the state shows higher amounts across the northern Colorado mountains.  Just a few spots will be in the 6-8” range so expectations are low with this trough.
NWS snowfall forecast for the state shows higher amounts across the northern Colorado mountains.  Just a few spots will be in the 6-8” range so expectations are low with this trough.

Friday through Sunday… Back to glorious fall weather!  Expect lots of sun and chilly mornings. Friday will be the coolest with highs ranging from the upper 40s to mid-50s and then the weekend will be in the mid-50s to lower 60s.  Friday night lows will be lower teens to lower 20s and then the rest of the weekend they’ll be in the upper teens to upper 20s.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6679 / 19552712 / 1997

My next post will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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