Snow on Tuesday!…

First snowflakes of the year near Turkey Springs! Pic taken 10/10/2021 at 7:30am

First snowflakes of the year near Turkey Springs! Pic taken 10/10/2021 at 7:30am

Sunday – 10 Oct 2021 – 10:10am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 58.  The low of 34 occurred just after midnight. The peak wind at the airfield was 23mph.

Precip in the last 24 hours was spotty and light.

CoCoRaHS 24hr precip totals vary from zero to 0.06” across Archuleta County.
CoCoRaHS 24hr precip totals vary from zero to 0.06” across Archuleta County.
NWS mesonet 24hr precip totals ranged from zero to 0.08”.
NWS mesonet 24hr precip totals ranged from zero to 0.08”.

A weak upper level trough moved through this morning and kicked up a couple of showers.  A transient ridge is moving in behind it and will keep us dry and mostly sunny until tomorrow afternoon.  Winds and clouds will increase tomorrow afternoon as the ridge moves to our east and upper level southwest flow kicks in ahead of the next system.

Tuesday will be a fun weather day!  Our first good winter system will move through with plenty of moisture, colder temps, and gusty winds.

Wednesday will be dry as the system moves off to our east.  Thursday a weak, fast moving trough will kick up a few a spotty showers, mostly over the mountains.  Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will be sunny with warmer temps as a ridge builds over the region.

Water vapor satellite this morning: The first trough moved through our area this morning.  Clouds have already cleared out behind it.  The second trough is currently moving into the Pacific Northwest.  By tomorrow afternoon it will be a strong low spinning over the Great Basin.  The track, indicated by yellow arrows, will keep a strong southwest upslope flow over us.
Water vapor satellite this morning: The first trough moved through our area this morning.  Clouds have already cleared out behind it.  The second trough is currently moving into the Pacific Northwest.  By tomorrow afternoon it will be a strong low spinning over the Great Basin.  The track, indicated by yellow arrows, will keep a strong southwest upslope flow over us.

My forecast…

Today and tomorrow… There will be lots of blue sky today and then clouds will increase through tomorrow afternoon.  Highs will range from the upper 50s to mid-60s and lows will be low 20s to low 30s.  Winds will peak today in the 20-25mph range and then tomorrow afternoon in the 25-30mph range.

Tomorrow night and Tuesday… Clouds will increase with showers developing around midnight, especially over the mountains.  The best chance for precip will be from sunrise Tuesday to Tuesday evening. Showers will linger over the mountains into the early morning hours.

Temps Tuesday morning will be in the upper 20s to mid-30s, then will warm to the mid to upper 30s during the day, and then cool quickly Tuesday night into the teens.

It’s going to be windy with gusts in the 30-40mph range in the valley and 60-75mph range in the mountains.  Sadly this marks the end for our colorful aspen leaves.

My snow forecast…

Below 9,000ft: 1-2”

Above 9,000ft: 6-10”

*** The NWS will likely issue winter weather watches and advisories for the mountains within the next 24 to 36 hours. Expect poor driving conditions along Wolf Creek Pass all day Tuesday! ***

The NWS expects less than an inch in town and 8-12” in the mountains.  With temps in the valley at and slightly above freezing and a warm ground, snow will have trouble sticking. I expect 1-2” on cold surfaces across much of the valley.
The NWS expects less than an inch in town and 8-12” in the mountains.  With temps in the valley at and slightly above freezing and a warm ground, snow will have trouble sticking. I expect 1-2” on cold surfaces across much of the valley.
The high resolution WRF focused on the San Juan Mountains shows up to 2” in the valley and up to 15” in the mountains.  I think this is over-forecast for the mountains but it looks good for the valley and I like how it picks up the differences in terrain.
The high resolution WRF focused on the San Juan Mountains shows up to 2” in the valley and up to 15” in the mountains.  I think this is over-forecast for the mountains but it looks good for the valley and I like how it picks up the differences in terrain.

Wednesday through Friday… We’ll see lots of blue skies with periods of more clouds, especially Thursday afternoon, when a few spotty snowshowers are possible over the mountains. Highs Wednesday will range from the mid-40s to around 50 and by Friday they’ll be in the lower to upper 50s. Lows will be chilly ranging from the low teens to low 20s.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6779 / 19432817 / 1982

My next post will be tomorrow afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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