Winter arrives tomorrow!…

It’s been a wonderful fall! Pic taken 10/11/2021

It’s been a wonderful fall! It won’t look like this tomorrow! Pic taken 10/11/2021

Monday – 11 Oct 2021 – 5:50pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 60 and the high today was 61.  The low this morning was 27. The peak wind at the airfield today was 21mph.

There was no significant precip in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Game on!  It’s amazing how different the weather will be tomorrow.  So far the system is “behaving” and on track to hit us tomorrow.  A strong upper level low will track across northern AZ and then turn northeast towards Grand Junction.  That will keep us under strong southwest upslope flow.  There will be plenty of moisture, colder temps, and gusty winds.

Wednesday will be dry as the system moves off to our east.  Thursday a weak, fast moving trough will kick up a few a spotty showers.  Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will be sunny with warmer temps as a ridge builds over the region.

Water vapor and infrared satellite this afternoon: The low is intensifying over the Great Basin and expected to track along the yellow arrows.
Water vapor and infrared satellite this afternoon: The low is intensifying over the Great Basin and expected to track along the yellow arrows. 
Radar this afternoon: Showers are increasing across southeast UT ahead of the low. As the low moves over northern AZ later tonight, precip will develop in our area.
Radar this afternoon: Showers are increasing across southeast UT ahead of the low. As the low moves over northern AZ later tonight, precip will develop in our area.

My forecast…

Tonight and Tomorrow… Clouds will increase with showers developing around midnight, especially over the mountains.  The best chance for precip will be from sunrise Tuesday to Tuesday evening. Showers will linger over the mountains into the early morning hours.

Temps tomorrow morning will be in the lower to upper 30s, will stay in the mid to upper 30s during the day, and then cool quickly tomorrow night into the teens.

It’s going to be windy with gusts in the 30-40mph range in the valley and 60-75mph range in the mountains.  Sadly this marks the end for our colorful aspen leaves.

My snow forecast…

Below 9,000ft: 1-3” – locations above 8,000ft will be towards the top of that range

Above 9,000ft: 8-14”

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a Winter Storm Warning for the mountains above 9,000ft valid from midnight tonight to 6pm Tuesday evening for 8-14” of snow with locally higher amounts on south facing peaks and winds gusting to 60mph. Expect poor driving conditions along Wolf Creek Pass all day tomorrow! ***

The NWS 72hr precip forecast shows 0.50” for town and up to 1.25” in the mountains
The NWS 72hr precip forecast shows 0.50” for town and up to 1.25” in the mountains
The NWS 72hr snowfall forecast shows 2” in town and around 3” for folks above 8,000ft.  It shows 10-15” for our mountains.
The NWS 72hr snowfall forecast shows 2” in town and around 3” for folks above 8,000ft.  It shows 10-15” for our mountains.
The NWS snowfall forecast for the state
The NWS snowfall forecast for the state

Wednesday through Friday… We’ll see lots of blue skies with periods of more clouds, especially Thursday afternoon, when a few spotty showers are possible. Highs Wednesday will range from the mid-40s to around 50 and by Friday they’ll be in the lower to upper 50s. Lows will be chilly ranging from the low teens to low 20s.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6780 / 19502815 / 1913

*** CoCoRaHS observers, remember to remove the inner tube of your rain gauge, get your snowboards out, and have the ruler handy! ***

My next post will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Picture of Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

4 Responses

  1. Where was that picture taken of V Rock? We sold our 35 acres at Alpine Lakes Ranch and that was our view from our front yard.

  2. Shawn…I really enjoy your details of our daily weather. This
    helps in planning activities in Pagosa Springs.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

 

© 2024 Pagosa Weathe

Website Design by : Brandon