It’s been a wonderful fall! It won’t look like this tomorrow! Pic taken 10/11/2021
Monday – 11 Oct 2021 – 5:50pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 60 and the high today was 61. The low this morning was 27. The peak wind at the airfield today was 21mph.
There was no significant precip in the last 24 hours.
Forecast discussion…
Game on! It’s amazing how different the weather will be tomorrow. So far the system is “behaving” and on track to hit us tomorrow. A strong upper level low will track across northern AZ and then turn northeast towards Grand Junction. That will keep us under strong southwest upslope flow. There will be plenty of moisture, colder temps, and gusty winds.
Wednesday will be dry as the system moves off to our east. Thursday a weak, fast moving trough will kick up a few a spotty showers. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will be sunny with warmer temps as a ridge builds over the region.
My forecast…
Tonight and Tomorrow… Clouds will increase with showers developing around midnight, especially over the mountains. The best chance for precip will be from sunrise Tuesday to Tuesday evening. Showers will linger over the mountains into the early morning hours.
Temps tomorrow morning will be in the lower to upper 30s, will stay in the mid to upper 30s during the day, and then cool quickly tomorrow night into the teens.
It’s going to be windy with gusts in the 30-40mph range in the valley and 60-75mph range in the mountains. Sadly this marks the end for our colorful aspen leaves.
My snow forecast…
Below 9,000ft: 1-3” – locations above 8,000ft will be towards the top of that range
Above 9,000ft: 8-14”
*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a Winter Storm Warning for the mountains above 9,000ft valid from midnight tonight to 6pm Tuesday evening for 8-14” of snow with locally higher amounts on south facing peaks and winds gusting to 60mph. Expect poor driving conditions along Wolf Creek Pass all day tomorrow! ***
Wednesday through Friday… We’ll see lots of blue skies with periods of more clouds, especially Thursday afternoon, when a few spotty showers are possible. Highs Wednesday will range from the mid-40s to around 50 and by Friday they’ll be in the lower to upper 50s. Lows will be chilly ranging from the low teens to low 20s.
Pagosa Springs historical data
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 67 | 80 / 1950 | 28 | 15 / 1913 |
*** CoCoRaHS observers, remember to remove the inner tube of your rain gauge, get your snowboards out, and have the ruler handy! ***
My next post will be tomorrow morning.
– Shawn
4 Responses
Where was that picture taken of V Rock? We sold our 35 acres at Alpine Lakes Ranch and that was our view from our front yard.
Shawn…I really enjoy your details of our daily weather. This
helps in planning activities in Pagosa Springs.
Great service, Shawn, thank you!
Dan, thanks – I’m honored!