But wait, there’s more!

Peak Cloud

A towering cumulus cloud looms over Pagosa Peak this morning. It will be windy with a chance for scattered showers this afternoon.

10-9-21: 11:45am update…

As expected, we got our first round of rain during the night and this morning. Totals were not high, but most of us found around a tenth of an inch of rain in our gauges. A low pressure and trough to our NW will move SE during the day and by tonight we will see our next chance for rain that will linger into the day tomorrow. A cold front will also move through giving those of us who live at 8000 feet and above a slight chance for some light snow overnight and tomorrow morning. The mountains could see 1-2 inches of snow tonight and tomorrow. With the trough to our west, winds will be gusty today approaching or exceeding 30mph and higher in the mountains.

After a break in the action on Monday, an even stronger trough and associated cold front will arrive on Tuesday giving us another round of moisture on Tuesday and Wednesday along with the potential for snow in Pagosa Springs. As of this post I still think 1-3 inches of snow will be possible.

Screenshot 2021 10 09 104801
Remote sensor rainfall totals over the past 24hrs.
Screenshot 2021 10 09 104607
COCORAHS reports from today…most totals were under 0.20.
Screenshot 2021 10 09 111323
Look for winds gusting to over 30mph today.
Screenshot 2021 10 09 110233
A low pressure over Nevada will work its way SE over the next 24 hours ushering in some colder and another chance for rain in the valley and snow for the mountains.
Screenshot 2021 10 09 104831
The latest NWS 3 day rainfall forecast from today through Tuesday. Some of this will fall as snow for us!
Screenshot 2021 10 09 105139
The latest GFS model run is predicting 2-4 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs from Monday night through Tuesday night next week.

My forecast…

The rest of today…Partly cloudy this afternoon with a few scattered showers. Highs will be in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s and winds could gust to over 30mph in town and higher in the mountains.

Tonight-Monday: Colder air and more showers move in tonight behind a trough and a cold front and some of us in elevations 8K and higher may see some light snow as temps drop into the upper 20’s and low 30’s. Highs on Sunday will remain in the 50’s with a chance for scattered showers during the day. We could find an additional 0.05-0.20 of rainfall in our gauges and the mountains could see 2-4 inches of snow by Sunday evening when the low exits our area. We will get a weather break for most of Monday under mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 50’s. By Monday night, rain, then a mix of snow and rain will start moving in from the next system.

Monday night-Thursday of next week: Our next storm moves in with some winterized air and moisture, giving us a chance for cold rain and snow in Pagosa Springs and all snow for the mountains from Monday night through Tuesday . Right now I think 1-2 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs (more for elevations 8000 and up) is possible and 5-10 inches for the mountains. Along with the chance for snow we will see our first winter temperatures with highs on Tuesday staying in the 30’s and lows on Wednesday and Thursday will drop into the teens and lower 20’s! By Wednesday the system moves through and the rest of the week looks mostly sunny but chilly!

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for October 9th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6784 / 19102716 / 1975

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