Here we go…

Aspen

Two days ago the Aspen were still going strong around Williams Creek Reservoir. Photo by Mark Langford

10-8-21: 10am update…

A trough to our west is shifting our mid-level and surface flow to the SW and sending a disturbance that will move through tonight and Saturday giving us a good chance for rain and even a few thunderstorms. On Saturday night the trough and cold front move through, lowing our temperatures and giving those of us living at 8000 feet and up a chance for light snow. I think by Monday morning most of us will find 0.20-0.40 of rainfall in our gauges and the mountains will see 2-4 inches of snow.

After a break in the action on Monday, an even stronger trough and associated cold front will arrive on Tuesday giving us another round of moisture Monday night through Tuesday along with the potential for snow in Pagosa Springs. Models are still wavering on how much moisture will be falling from this next system, but 1-2 inches of snow in Pagosa Springs is possible and 5-10 inches for our mountains. Along with the chance for snow will be our first winter temperatures with highs on Tuesday staying in the 30’s and lows on Wednesday and Thursday will drop into the teens and lower 20’s!

Screenshot 2021 10 08 080523
As our trough approaches over the next couple of days so will our winds! Look for winds gusting to over 25mph today and Saturday.
Screenshot 2021 10 08 091106
A trough to our west is shifting our mid-level and surface flow to the SW and sending a disturbance that will move through tonight and Saturday. On Saturday night the trough and cold front moves through, lowing our temperatures and giving those of us at 8000 feet and up chance for light snow.
Screenshot 2021 10 08 083206
Our two weekend rainmakers are currently to our west…each are shifting east over the next two days.
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The latest NWS 3 day rainfall forecast from today through Monday.
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The latest NWS Blend of models is predicting 1-2 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs from Monday night through Tuesday night next week. The EURO is predicting less snow now but the GFS is predicting more.

My forecast…

The rest of today…Partly cloudy this morning becoming mostly cloudy by this afternoon. Highs will be in the 60’s and winds could gust to over 25mph. We could see some light rain starting around sunset.

Friday night-Monday: Rain odds ramp up this evening as a large trough along the west coast brings in moisture from the SW in the mid levels and the surface along with a disturbance. Lows on Saturday morning will mainly be in the mid to upper 30’s with highs on Saturday under mostly cloudy and rainy skies on the 50’s. Winds could gust over 30mph on Saturday. Some colder air moves in on Saturday night behind a trough and a cold front and some of us in elevations 8K and higher may see some light snow as temps drop into the upper 20’s and low 30’s. Highs on Sunday will remain in the 50’s. I think by Monday morning most of us will find 0.20-0.40 of rainfall in our gauges and the mountains will see 2-4 inches of snow. We will get a weather break for most of Monday under mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 50’s. By Monday night, more rain will start moving in from the next system.

Monday night-Thursday of next week: Our next storm moves in with some winterized air and moisture, giving us a chance for cold rain and snow in Pagosa Springs and all snow for the mountains from Monday night through Tuesday . Right now, I think 1-2 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs is possible and 5-10 inches for the mountains. Along with the chance for snow we will see our first winter temperatures with highs on Tuesday staying in the 30’s and lows on Wednesday and Thursday will drop into the teens and lower 20’s! By Wednesday the system moves through and the rest of the week looks mostly sunny but chilly!

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for October 8th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6885/ 19102812 / 1992

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