Did someone mention the “S” word?

Williams Creek Res

A moody morning at Williams Creek Reservoir yesterday…

10-7-21: 3pm update…

Just when I thought our rain was over yesterday morning, a storm moved through around 11am and dropped some additional rain over parts of our area. My rain gauge recorded an additional 0.14 of precipitation about a mile north of Hatcher Lake.

Our next rain maker arrives tomorrow as a large trough digs into the west coast, producing another upper level low in southern California and some short waves that will keep our weather unsettled throughout the weekend. By Monday we all could see 0.25-.050 of rain and our mountains 1-2 inches of snow.

After a break in the action on Monday, an even stronger trough and associated cold front will arrive on Tuesday giving us another round of moisture on Tuesday and Wednesday along with the potential for snow in Pagosa Springs! Right now it looks like 1-3 inches of snow will be possible.

Screenshot 2021 10 07 070837
Remote sensor rainfall totals from yesterday’s bonus rainfall.
Screenshot 2021 10 07 133026
COCORAHS reports from yesterday…twice in one week my rain gauge about a mile north of Hatcher Lake won the rain lottery for our area!
Screenshot 2021 10 07 140635
As our trough approaches over the next couple of days so will our winds! Look for winds gusting to over 25mph on Friday and Saturday.
Screenshot 2021 10 07 133954
Thanks to a deep trough over California developing on Friday, we will tap into a SW flow for most of the weekend, increasing our rain chances and snow for the mountains.
Screenshot 2021 10 07 133632
The latest NWS 3 day rainfall forecast from today through Sunday.
Screenshot 2021 10 07 140159
The latest EURO model run is predicting 1-3 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs from Monday night through Tuesday night next week!

My forecast…

The rest of today through Friday…Partly cloudy this afternoon with highs in the upper 60’s and some wind gusts 15-20mph. On Friday winds will pick up and clouds will start thickening in the afternoon with a slight chance for rain late in the afternoon. Lows on Friday morning will range from the upper 20’s to the low 30’s.

Friday night-Monday: Our next rain maker will be arriving on Friday afternoon as a large trough digs into the west coast, producing another upper level low in southern California and some short waves that will keep our weather unsettled throughout the weekend. There will be a chance for rain Friday night through Sunday but the best odds will Friday night and Saturday. Winds may gust to over 30mph on Saturday. Lows on Saturday morning will mainly be in the mid to upper 30’s with highs on Saturday under mostly cloudy and rainy skies on the 50’s. Some colder air moves in on Saturday night and some of us in elevations 8K and higher may see some light snow as temps drop into the upper 20’s and low 30’s. Highs on Sunday will remain in the 50’s. By Monday we all could see 0.25-.050 of rain and our mountains 1-2 inches of snow.

Tuesday-Wednesday of next week: Our next storm moves in with some winterized air and moisture, giving us a chance for cold rain and snow in Pagosa Springs and all snow for the mountains. Right now, I think 1-3 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs and 5-10 inches for the mountains is possible. I’ll have a better read on this system by tomorrow morning when I do my next post.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for October 7th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6980 / 19872812 / 1955

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