Round one is done, now for our next system…

Shawn and Arleen

Shawn and Arleen doing their weather thing! A big thanks to Mr Kurz and the Global Science class for inviting them to discuss weather – they enjoyed it! If your group would like us to do a presentation, send an email to pagosaweather@gmail.com.

10-6-21: 9:00am update…

It wasn’t a “gully washer”, but at least most of us found a tenth of an inch of rain in our gauges this morning from our first system of the week and our mountain peaks 1-2 inches of snow. As expected, we were on the eastern fringes of the upper level low that skirted by our area during the early morning hours today. There will continue to be some light showers this morning and a slight chance for some scattered showers and storms this afternoon. Depending on how much sun we see, we may warm into the low 60’s by later in the day.

Our next rain maker will be arriving on Friday afternoon as a large trough digs into the west coast, producing another upper level low in southern California and some short waves that will keep our weather unsettled throughout the weekend. By Monday we all could see 0.25-.050 of rain and our mountains 1-2 inches of snow.

Screenshot 2021 10 06 081118
As forecast, areas to our west received more rainfall than we did. The good news is that most of us found something in our rain gauge this morning!
Screenshot 2021 10 06 080714 2
All of our COCORAHS reporters got under 0.20 of rainfall overnight.
Screenshot 2021 10 06 081511
Our upper level low has moved into northern Utah and will allow drier air to take its place today through Friday afternoon. Our next system is a deep trough moving into the Pacific NW this morning.
Screenshot 2021 10 06 081036
The latest NWS 3 day rainfall forecast is starting to reflect our next rainmaker moving in on late Friday.

My forecast…

The rest of today…For the most part rain will be ending and clouds parting but there could still be a few scattered showers around during the afternoon. Highs will hit the upper 50’s to low 60’s depending on how much sun breaks out this afternoon.

Thursday-Monday: A break in our rain chances through Friday afternoon with lows in the upper 20’s to low 30’s and highs in the 60’s. Our next rain maker will be arriving on Friday afternoon as a large trough digs into the west coast, producing another upper level low in southern California and some short waves that will keep our weather unsettled throughout the weekend. By Monday we all could see 0.25-.050 of rain and our mountains 1-2 inches of snow.

Tuesday-Wednesday of next week: The models are looking interesting for the middle of next week, but I’m still not seeing a consensus yet so I will hold off until tomorrow to make my forecast!

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for October 6th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6982 / 19562913 / 1908

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