Our 12 hour rain window is about to open!

Fall Bird

A Townsend’s Solitaire perches on top of a fence post backlit by the warm colors of fall from Gambel oak in the background. Photo by Mark Langford

10-4-21: 10:00am update…

First of all, don’t forget to enter our “first inch of snow” contest which ends Wednesday night (the 6th) at midnight. Just click on the link below and make your educated guess!

Weather Contest! First Inch Of Snow! – Pagosa Weather

Yet another wonderful fall day greeted us on Monday and such will be the case today until rain starts creeping back into our forecast after sunset.

This evening an upper level low pressure now over southern California will be drifting NNE, then turning into a wave later tonight. Unfortunately most of the moisture associated with this low-wave will stay to our west and SW but we will have a 12 hour window of rain opportunity. As of this post, I think most of us will see 0.10-0.40 of rain by Wednesday afternoon. There could also be a light dusting of snow again for our nearby mountains.

Looking further down the line, its now looking like we may see two more moisture windows opening over the next week. On Friday, a deep Pacific trough will set up in southern California and set us up for several days of deep SW flow over the weekend. This will be a colder system so our nearby mountains stand a good chance for seeing several inches of snow from this one. There may be another system moving into our area around the middle of next week as well.

Screenshot 2021 10 05 091027
Rainfall is starting to show up on this regional radar as a closed low moves onshore into far southern California this morning. This low will drift NNE today and give us a rain window from this evening through around mid-day on Wednesday.
Screenshot 2021 10 05 091156
Mid-level water vapor satellite imagery reveals where the moisture (green shades) is as of this post. Skies will start turning partly cloudy with cirrus clouds as the day progresses.
Screenshot 2021 10 05 091615
Here is the latest rainfall forecast from the NWS Blend of Models through Wednesday afternoon. Most of the rain will stay to our west and SW due to the movement of the low being more NNE instead of NE.
Screenshot 2021 10 05 094110
Our NWS 3 day rainfall forecast continues to favor areas to our west and SW due to the forecast movement of the low pressure.

My forecast…

The rest of today and Wednesday…Turning more cloudy as the day progress with mainly cirrus clouds. Around sunset we may start seeing our first radar blips as showers start moving in from the SW. Rain odds won’t start ramping up until closer to midnight. While our rain window will be open through mid day on Wednesday, our best chance for rain will be from midnight-late morning. Highs will be in the upper 60’s to low 70’s today. I expect most of us to see 0.10-0.40 of rain from this system. As usual, this will be convective so there will be winners and losers. The snow level will stay above 11,000 feet for this storm so any snow on the mountains will be light. Lows will be in the low 30’s on Wednesday and highs will hit the upper 50’s to low 60’s depending on how much sun breaks out in the afternoon. Winds will be 5-10 mph for the most part but could gust over 20mph during rain showers and thunderstorms during the night.

Thursday-Monday: Continued chances for scattered rain during the afternoons with lows in the upper 20’s- low 30’s and highs in the 60’s. By Friday afternoon we will see our second rainmaker (and snowmaker for the mountains) in the form of a deep Pacific trough. There will be a chance for thunderstorms most of the weekend but especially from Friday afternoon-Saturday afternoon. Sunday afternoon and Monday look relatively rain free as of this post. This rain maker has the potential to be a wetter one than the one moving in tonight.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for October 5th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6880 / 19873013 / 1908

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