System one is getting drier…

Fall toned cottonwoods surround the Piedra River near the Piedra River hiking trail about a week ago.

10-4-21: 11:00am update…

Another great day to head outdoors and expose your senses to our beautiful fall colors and crisp blue skies!

High pressure and dry NW flow will keep us rainless through Tuesday afternoon. By Tuesday evening an upper level low pressure now over southern California will be in position just to our SW to stream moisture from the SW into our area for about 12 hours. As of this post, I think most of us will see 0.10-0.40 of rain by Wednesday afternoon. The models are still frustrating me about our next rain chances for this weekend so I’m wimping out and waiting another day to make my forecast!

My forecast…

The rest of today and tonight…High pressure builds in today so only decorative cumulus clouds are in the forecast. Highs will be in the upper 60’s to low 70’s.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Our SOCAL low moves into our area and gives us a chance for showers and thunderstorms starting Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. I expect most of us to see 0.10-0.40 of rain from this system. As usual, this will be convective so there will be winners and losers. The snow level will stay above 11,000 feet for this storm so any snow on the mountains will be light. Lows will range from the upper 20’s to mid 30’s and highs will be in the upper 60’s on Tuesday and upper 50’s to low 60’s on Wednesday.

Thursday-Monday: Continued chances for scattered rain during the afternoons with lows in the upper 20’s- low 30’s and highs in the 60’s. By next weekend we could see our second rainmaker (and snowmaker for the mountains) in the form of a deep Pacific trough. Some of the models are bullish on rain but others are predicting a dry weekend. I’m hoping to have more info by Tuesday’s post.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for October 3rd.