System one is getting drier…

Piedra River

Fall toned cottonwoods surround the Piedra River near the Piedra River hiking trail about a week ago.

10-4-21: 11:00am update…

Another great day to head outdoors and expose your senses to our beautiful fall colors and crisp blue skies!

High pressure and dry NW flow will keep us rainless through Tuesday afternoon. By Tuesday evening an upper level low pressure now over southern California will be in position just to our SW to stream moisture from the SW into our area for about 12 hours. As of this post, I think most of us will see 0.10-0.40 of rain by Wednesday afternoon. The models are still frustrating me about our next rain chances for this weekend so I’m wimping out and waiting another day to make my forecast!

Screenshot 2021 10 04 074601
Rainfall was again hard to find yesterday for our area but our nearby mountain sensors did well. Under high pressure, we will have to wait until Tuesday evening for our next rain chance.
Screenshot 2021 10 04 100444
Most of our COCORAHS reporters had very little to post this morning but there were a few exceptions. My gauge north of Lake Hatcher won the rain lottery yesterday but 0.03 is hardly worth bragging about!
Screenshot 2021 10 04 103952
Our SOCAL low continues to drift NE. Moisture will be streaming into our area around the low from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning giving us our next chance for rain. Mid-levels of our atmosphere are currently drying out under high pressure and streaming in from the NW as indicated by the yellow over our area.
Screenshot 2021 10 04 100553
Our NWS 3 day rainfall forecast is looking less wet than yesterday unfortunately. Most of this will fall from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning.
Screenshot 2021 10 04 102853
Interestingly, despite most of the models predicting only a quarter of an inch of rain on Tuesday night-Wednesday, we are on the edge of a “marginal chance” for excessive rainfall.

My forecast…

The rest of today and tonight…High pressure builds in today so only decorative cumulus clouds are in the forecast. Highs will be in the upper 60’s to low 70’s.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Our SOCAL low moves into our area and gives us a chance for showers and thunderstorms starting Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. I expect most of us to see 0.10-0.40 of rain from this system. As usual, this will be convective so there will be winners and losers. The snow level will stay above 11,000 feet for this storm so any snow on the mountains will be light. Lows will range from the upper 20’s to mid 30’s and highs will be in the upper 60’s on Tuesday and upper 50’s to low 60’s on Wednesday.

Thursday-Monday: Continued chances for scattered rain during the afternoons with lows in the upper 20’s- low 30’s and highs in the 60’s. By next weekend we could see our second rainmaker (and snowmaker for the mountains) in the form of a deep Pacific trough. Some of the models are bullish on rain but others are predicting a dry weekend. I’m hoping to have more info by Tuesday’s post.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam ( for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for October 3rd.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6779 / 19873120 / 1959

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy


© 2024 Pagosa Weathe

Website Design by : Brandon