System one is getting drier…

Piedra River

Fall toned cottonwoods surround the Piedra River near the Piedra River hiking trail about a week ago.

10-4-21: 11:00am update…

Another great day to head outdoors and expose your senses to our beautiful fall colors and crisp blue skies!

High pressure and dry NW flow will keep us rainless through Tuesday afternoon. By Tuesday evening an upper level low pressure now over southern California will be in position just to our SW to stream moisture from the SW into our area for about 12 hours. As of this post, I think most of us will see 0.10-0.40 of rain by Wednesday afternoon. The models are still frustrating me about our next rain chances for this weekend so I’m wimping out and waiting another day to make my forecast!

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Rainfall was again hard to find yesterday for our area but our nearby mountain sensors did well. Under high pressure, we will have to wait until Tuesday evening for our next rain chance.
Screenshot 2021 10 04 100444
Most of our COCORAHS reporters had very little to post this morning but there were a few exceptions. My gauge north of Lake Hatcher won the rain lottery yesterday but 0.03 is hardly worth bragging about!
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Our SOCAL low continues to drift NE. Moisture will be streaming into our area around the low from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning giving us our next chance for rain. Mid-levels of our atmosphere are currently drying out under high pressure and streaming in from the NW as indicated by the yellow over our area.
Screenshot 2021 10 04 100553
Our NWS 3 day rainfall forecast is looking less wet than yesterday unfortunately. Most of this will fall from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning.
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Interestingly, despite most of the models predicting only a quarter of an inch of rain on Tuesday night-Wednesday, we are on the edge of a “marginal chance” for excessive rainfall.

My forecast…

The rest of today and tonight…High pressure builds in today so only decorative cumulus clouds are in the forecast. Highs will be in the upper 60’s to low 70’s.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Our SOCAL low moves into our area and gives us a chance for showers and thunderstorms starting Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. I expect most of us to see 0.10-0.40 of rain from this system. As usual, this will be convective so there will be winners and losers. The snow level will stay above 11,000 feet for this storm so any snow on the mountains will be light. Lows will range from the upper 20’s to mid 30’s and highs will be in the upper 60’s on Tuesday and upper 50’s to low 60’s on Wednesday.

Thursday-Monday: Continued chances for scattered rain during the afternoons with lows in the upper 20’s- low 30’s and highs in the 60’s. By next weekend we could see our second rainmaker (and snowmaker for the mountains) in the form of a deep Pacific trough. Some of the models are bullish on rain but others are predicting a dry weekend. I’m hoping to have more info by Tuesday’s post.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for October 3rd.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6779 / 19873120 / 1959

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