Two systems this week!

Fall Peak

A towering cumulus cloud builds over a snowy Pagosa Peak yesterday. There is a slight chance for a scattered shower this afternoon but most will hug the mountains again like they did yesterday…

10-3-21: 9:30am update…

Another beautiful morning in Pagosa Springs as a mixture of frosted mountains and an ever changing color palette greets our eyes.

Other than a few scattered showers mainly over the mountains, the next couple of days will be perfect for outdoor activities as we wait for our next weather maker now off the southern California coast. By Tuesday afternoon the low will be in position to stream moisture from the SW into our area for about 24 hours. Right now I don’t see this as a big rain generator but I think most of us will see 0.20-0.60 of rain by Wednesday afternoon.

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Rainfall was hard to find yesterday for our area but our nearby mountain sensors did well. Such will be the case again today as most showers will be mountain huggers.
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Most of our COCORAHS reporters had very little to post this morning but there were a few exceptions.
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Our next weather maker will be this upper level low moving NE off the southern California coast this morning. Moisture will be streaming into our area around the low from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.
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Our NWS 3 day rainfall forecast is looking decent. Most of this will fall from Tuesday evening through Wednesday.

My forecast…

The rest of today and tonight…partly cloudy with a slight chance for some scattered showers, especially over the mountains where greater lift will occur. Highs today will be in the low to mid 60’s.

Monday: High pressure builds in for Monday so only decorative cumulus clouds are in the forecast. Lows will range from the upper 20’s to mid 30’s and highs will be in the upper 60’s.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Our SOCAL low moves into our area and gives us a chance for showers and thunderstorms starting Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. I expect most of us to see 0.20-0.60 of rain from this system. As usual, this will be convective so there will be winners and losers. The snow level will stay above 11,000 feet for this storm so any snow on the mountains will be light. Lows will range from the upper 20’s to mid 30’s and highs will be in the upper 60’s on Tuesday and upper 50’s to low 60’s on Wednesday.

Thursday-Sunday: Continued chances for rain during the afternoons with lows in the upper 20’s- low 30’s and highs in the 60’s. By next weekend we could see our second rainmaker (and snowmaker for the mountains) in the form of a deep Pacific trough. The models are still trying to sort this one out so I’ll keep everyone posted as the week progresses.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for October 3rd.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6879 / 19873221 / 1961

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