The next system will move through Tuesday night and Wednesday…

Happy pup running through the snow near Treasure Mountain, elevation 11,400ft. Pic taken 10/1/2021

Happy pup running through the snow near Treasure Mountain, elevation 11,400ft. Pic taken 10/1/2021

Saturday – 2 Oct 2021 – 5:15pm

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 57.  The high so far today has been 65. The low this morning was 34. The peak wind at the airfield was 9mph.

Precip yesterday was less than I expected.  Most of the moisture and precip stayed well to our east over the southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico.  An inch or two snow accumulated in some spots down to around 10,500ft with slightly better snow totals above 11,000ft. I saw 2-3” around 11,400ft near Treasure Mountain yesterday afternoon.  I was expecting at least double that.

Here are precip totals since Sunday

CoCoRaHS precip totals since Sunday vary from 0.79” to 1.73” across Archuleta County.
CoCoRaHS precip totals since Sunday vary from 0.79” to 1.73” across Archuleta County.
NWS mesonet precip totals since Sunday in Archuleta County varied from 0.59”(?) to 1.76”. Based on other nearby reports, I think this report is too low.  Compare it to the CoCoRaHS totals in that same area.  CoCoRaHS reports are done by experienced people while that 0.59” is from an automated HADS sensor. This warning is posted by NOAA about HADS data: “Data values presented on HADS web pages are PROVISIONAL and HAVE NOT been reviewed nor evaluated through quality control tests.”
NWS mesonet precip totals since Sunday in Archuleta County varied from 0.59”(?) to 1.76”. Based on other nearby reports, I think the 0.59″ report is too low.  Compare it to the CoCoRaHS totals in that same area.  CoCoRaHS reports are done by experienced people while that 0.59” is from an automated HADS sensor. This warning is posted by NOAA about HADS data: “Data values presented on HADS web pages are PROVISIONAL and HAVE NOT been reviewed nor evaluated through quality control tests.”

Saturday through most of Tuesday weak ridging will build over the area, but residual moisture and instability will kick up isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mostly over the mountains.

Late Tuesday and Wednesday the next system will move through the region.  It will be a quick moving and warm system moving into our area from the southwest.

Water vapor satellite this afternoon: Our next system is spinning off the southern CA coast.  It will get caught up in stronger upper level flow and will move through our area pretty quickly between midnight Tuesday and noon Wednesday.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon: Our next system is spinning off the southern CA coast.  It will get caught up in stronger upper level flow and will move through our area pretty quickly between midnight Tuesday and noon Wednesday.
Radar this afternoon: There are spotty weak showers over the mountains moving slowly from the northwest to the southeast.
Radar this afternoon: There are spotty weak showers over the mountains moving slowly from the northwest to the southeast. These showers will dissipate quickly when the sun goes down.

My forecast…

Rest of today through most of Tuesday… There will be spotty afternoon showers, mostly over the mountains, but we’ll see lots of sun and pleasant fall temps. Patchy morning fog is possible tomorrow morning. Highs will be in the mid-60s to the lower 70s and lows will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Tuesday night and Wednesday… Clouds will increase with showers developing around midnight Tuesday.  The best chance for precip will be from midnight to noon and then precip will become more spotty through the afternoon. 1-3” of snow is possible above 11,500ft.

The lows Tuesday night will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s. The highs on Wednesday will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and then lows Wednesday night will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

NBM precip through Wednesday at midnight shows around 0.50” near town and up to 0.85” in the mountains.  The models have been inconsistent about precip amounts so forecast confidence is shaky.
NBM precip through Wednesday at midnight shows around 0.50” near town and up to 0.85” in the mountains.  The models have been inconsistent about precip amounts so forecast confidence is shaky.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6984 / 19343218 / 1950

On Tuesday we’ll be discussing weather with Pagosa’s smart high school science students – we’re excited about that! And keep an eye out for Arleen’s winter outlook soon.  She has been busy gathering data!

Mark takes over tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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