Happy pup running through the snow near Treasure Mountain, elevation 11,400ft. Pic taken 10/1/2021
Saturday – 2 Oct 2021 – 5:15pm
Overall situation…
At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 57. The high so far today has been 65. The low this morning was 34. The peak wind at the airfield was 9mph.
Precip yesterday was less than I expected. Most of the moisture and precip stayed well to our east over the southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico. An inch or two snow accumulated in some spots down to around 10,500ft with slightly better snow totals above 11,000ft. I saw 2-3” around 11,400ft near Treasure Mountain yesterday afternoon. I was expecting at least double that.
Here are precip totals since Sunday…


Saturday through most of Tuesday weak ridging will build over the area, but residual moisture and instability will kick up isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mostly over the mountains.
Late Tuesday and Wednesday the next system will move through the region. It will be a quick moving and warm system moving into our area from the southwest.


My forecast…
Rest of today through most of Tuesday… There will be spotty afternoon showers, mostly over the mountains, but we’ll see lots of sun and pleasant fall temps. Patchy morning fog is possible tomorrow morning. Highs will be in the mid-60s to the lower 70s and lows will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.
Tuesday night and Wednesday… Clouds will increase with showers developing around midnight Tuesday. The best chance for precip will be from midnight to noon and then precip will become more spotty through the afternoon. 1-3” of snow is possible above 11,500ft.
The lows Tuesday night will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s. The highs on Wednesday will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and then lows Wednesday night will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Pagosa Springs historical data
Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
69 | 84 / 1934 | 32 | 18 / 1950 |
On Tuesday we’ll be discussing weather with Pagosa’s smart high school science students – we’re excited about that! And keep an eye out for Arleen’s winter outlook soon. She has been busy gathering data!
Mark takes over tomorrow.
– Shawn