Pagosa Weather September temp & precip summary / drought update / river flow / October outlook

The Climate Prediction Center October precip outlook shows us with "equal chances" for average for above average precip.

Friday – 1 Oct 2021 – 2:30pm

September 2021 summary…

The average low for September is 37 and the average high is 74. September precip averages 2.00″.

How did we do? Check out these charts…

Temps in September averaged 2-4 degrees above normal
Temps in September averaged 2-4 degrees above normal
Precip in September ranged from 70-80% of average in the southwest corner of the county to 25-50% across the eastern half.
Precip in September ranged from 70-80% of average in the southwest corner of the county to 25-50% across the eastern half.
September Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE). This product estimates precip from various sources. It is not perfect, but it’s a decent source in data sparse areas like ours. Based on other data, I think this is a bit high.
September Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPE). This product estimates precip from various sources. It is not perfect, but it’s a decent source in data sparse areas like ours. Based on other data, I think this is a bit high.
CoCoRaHS September precip reports vary from 1.08″ to 2.06″ – all but one report was below the average of 2.00″
CoCoRaHS September precip reports vary from 1.08″ to 2.06″ – all but one report was below the average of 2.00″
NWS automated mesonet reports indicate slightly higher amounts that vary from 0.86" near town to 2.4" at Buckles Lake.
NWS automated mesonet reports indicate slightly higher amounts that vary from 0.86″ near town to 2.4″ at Buckles Lake.

Drought update…

The West Slope is still hurting. Drought conditions across Archuleta County range from “abnormally dry” in the northeast corner to “extreme” in the southwest corner. Reminder: Winter snow has far more impact on our drought conditions than summer rain.
The West Slope is still hurting. Drought conditions across Archuleta County range from “abnormally dry” in the northeast corner to “extreme” in the southwest corner. Reminder: Winter snow has far more impact on our drought conditions than summer rain.

River flow…

San Juan River flow varied from a low of 16cfs on 18 Sep to a high of 131cfs on 2 Sep.  Flow was well below the median all month (indicated by the dotted line).
San Juan River flow varied from a low of 16cfs on 18 Sep to a high of 131cfs on 2 Sep. Flow was well below the median all month (indicated by the dotted line).

October outlook…

The average low for October is 26 and the average high is 63. The record high of 85 occurred on 14 Oct 1940. The record low of -5 occurred on 21 Oct 1910. October precip averages 2.27″ with 4″ of snow.

The Climate Prediction Center October temperature outlook shows us on the edge of "equal chances" for average temps and 33-40% chance for above average temps.
The Climate Prediction Center October temperature outlook shows us on the edge of “equal chances” for average temps and 33-40% chance for above average temps.
 The Climate Prediction Center October precip outlook shows us with "equal chances" for average for above average precip.
The Climate Prediction Center October precip outlook shows us with “equal chances” for average for above average precip.
The Euro model 50 member ensemble 45-day precip for Pagosa shows 2.75" to 3.00" - above the 2.27" average.
The Euro model 50 member ensemble 45-day precip for Pagosa shows 2.75″ to 3.00″ – above the 2.27″ average.

Later today Arleen will announce the winner of the Monsoon Season Precip contest! My next forecast post will be tomorrow afternoon. That post will include precip totals for the week.

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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One Response

  1. Blondie from Blondie’s Fruit and vegetable stand east of town said it always snowed on September 10th in Pagosa Springs for the last 10 years. The snow would not stick to the ground. As an avid gardener I have kept an eye out for on freezing temps before they happen so I can pick my tomatoes before a freeze. We are experiencing amazingly warm weather for our area and I am very grateful!

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