Wet through Friday…

Valley fog and snow on the Rio Grande Pyramid!  Pic taken 9/28/2021

Valley fog and snow on the Rio Grande Pyramid!  Pic taken 9/28/2021

Tuesday – 28 Sep 2021 – 11:10am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 63 and the low this morning was 39. The peak wind at the airfield was 17mph, though a few folks had gusts to 25mph with the showers. 

We got more precip!  I saw a dusting of snow at the top of Pagosa Peak and near Cimarrona Peak, so the snow level was 12,500ft.  Precip ended last night just as it got cold enough for snow on the mountain tops.

CoCoRaHS 24 hour precip reports vary from 0.10” to 0.36” across Archuleta County.
CoCoRaHS 24 hour precip reports vary from 0.10” to 0.36” across Archuleta County.
NWS mesonet 24 hour precip in Archuleta County vary from 0.14” to 0.44”.
NWS mesonet 24 hour precip in Archuleta County varied from 0.14” to 0.44”. 

The cut-off low is spinning over the Trinidad/Walsenburg area. It’s weakening and continuing to move slowly northeast. There is plenty of moisture and instability to fuel showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening. 

Tomorrow an upper level trough will move through with less moisture, but instability will still be high, so we’ll see another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  

The next system will move into the area Thursday and Friday. It will take a similar track and bring active weather much like the system moving through now.

This weekend ridging will build over the area and will give us glorious fall weather!

Water vapor satellite this morning: The low is spinning over the Trinidad/Walsenburg area.  It’s weakening and moving slowly northeast.  The next system is moving into the Great Basin.  A closed low is expected to form over AZ late tomorrow and take a similar track to the first low.
Water vapor satellite this morning: The low is spinning over the Trinidad/Walsenburg area.  It’s weakening and moving slowly northeast.  The next system is moving into the Great Basin.  A closed low is expected to form over AZ late tomorrow and take a similar track to the first low.
Radar this morning: Radar this morning shows just a few spotty showers circulating counterclockwise around the periphery of the low.  The whole region will become active as we warm up today.  As I type at 10am, cumulus clouds are already building over the mountains. Showers will move from the northwest to the southeast today.
Radar this morning: Radar this morning shows just a few spotty showers circulating counterclockwise around the periphery of the low.  The whole region will become active as we warm up today.  As I type at 10am, cumulus clouds are already building over the mountains. Showers will move from the northwest to the southeast today.

My forecast…

Today through Friday… We’ll see variable clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoons and evenings.  Patchy morning fog is likely.  The snow level today is around 12,500ft and will drop to 11,500ft by tomorrow night.   I expect 4-8” of snow above timberline by late Friday.

Winds will peak around 20mph, though convective gusts to 35mph near showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Highs will be in the upper 50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.

NWS 72hr precip through Friday at 6am shows 0.60” in town and up to 1.25” in the mountains. This product does not include precip I expect to fall Friday afternoon.
NWS 72hr precip through Friday at 6am shows 0.60” in town and up to 1.25” in the mountains. This product does not include precip I expect to fall Friday afternoon.
NWS 72hr snow through Friday at 6am shows 4-6” above timberline.  This product does not include precip I expect to fall Friday afternoon.
NWS 72hr snow through Friday at 6am shows 4-6” above timberline.  This product does not include precip I expect to fall Friday afternoon.
WRF snow through Friday at 6am shows up to 8” on the higher peaks. (Same story with the time period.)
WRF snow through Friday at 6am shows up to 8” on the higher peaks. (Same story with the time period.)
Euro snow through Friday at midnight shows up to 8” above timberline. This one captures the entire time period!
Euro snow through Friday at midnight shows up to 8” above timberline. This one captures the entire time period!

Saturday and Sunday… There will be a few spotty afternoon showers on Saturday, and then Sunday will be dry with lots of sun. Highs will be in the mid-60s to around 70 and lows will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

Get out early Saturday to see fall colors back-dropped by snow-covered peaks!

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7085 / 19533215 / 1993

My next post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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