A spot of sun lights up fall colors between storm clouds. Pic taken 9/28/2021
Wednesday – 29 Sep 2021 – 9:30am
Overall situation…
At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 64 and the low this morning was 42. The peak wind at the airfield was 23mph.
Yesterday’s precip was disappointing. The mountains in the eastern part of the county saw the best action. A band of showers moved through around 3am and gave some of us a little rain. In the high country, temps have stayed steady so it’s likely another dusting of snow fell above 12,500ft.
Today an upper level trough will move through with less moisture, but instability will still be high, so we’ll see another round of spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday a closed low will develop over UT and then will move nearly over our head on Friday. There is plenty of moisture and lift for widespread showers and a few thunderstorms.
This weekend ridging will build over the area and will give us glorious fall weather!
My forecast…
Today through Friday… We’ll see variable clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Precip will be spotty today and then more widespread late tomorrow afternoon into the evening and then ramp again Friday afternoon. Patchy morning fog is likely.
The snow level will drop to 11,500ft tonight and then to 11,000ft Friday night. By late Friday I expect 4-8” of snow above 12,000ft and 1-3” above 11,000ft. A few wet snowflakes could fall on Wolf Creek Pass Friday night, but I don’t expect any accumulation on the road. With temps at or slightly below freezing, be leery of slick spots Friday night and Saturday morning.
Winds will peak around 20mph, though convective gusts to 35mph near showers and thunderstorms are possible.
Highs will be in the upper 50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.
Saturday and Sunday… There will be a few spotty afternoon showers, mostly over the mountains, but we’ll see lots of sun and pleasant fall temps. Highs will be in the mid-60s to around 70 and lows will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s.
Get out early Saturday to see fall colors back-dropped by snow-covered peaks!
Pagosa Springs historical data
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 70 | 83 / 1957 | 32 | 20 / 1908 |
My next post will be tomorrow.
– Shawn
