‘Red sky in the morning’ and patchy fog – both good signs for wet weather! Pic taken 9/27/2021
Monday – 27 Sep 2021 – 9:45am
Overall situation…
At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 68 and the low this morning was 46. The peak wind at the airfield was 28mph. I actually have precip to report!
The cut-off low is spinning over west central NM and moving slowly northeast. It will move over the Trinidad area tomorrow morning. There is plenty of moisture and instability for showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow. Wednesday moisture will be decreasing but instability will still be high as the upper level trough moves through, so we’ll see another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for snow on our mountain tops will be Wednesday as slightly cooler air moves in with the trough.
The models still disagree with the next low that could impact us Thursday through Saturday. The GFS shows split energy missing us to both the north and south which would give us just a few scraps while the usually more reliable Euro tracks the low across central NM and keeps us pretty wet (see the Wolf Creek meteograms below). For now I’ll stay optimistic and go with the Euro.
My forecast…
Today through Wednesday… We’ll see lots of clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoons and evenings. I expect accumulating snow to stay above timberline. By late Wednesday peaks over 12,000ft could have 3-6” of snow.
Winds will peak around 20mph, though convective gusts to 35mph near showers and thunderstorms are possible.
Highs will be in the lower to upper 60s and lows will be in the upper 30s to upper 40s.
Thursday through Saturday… Forecast confidence is still low for this period. For now I expect the wet pattern to continue with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The snow level will drop slightly to 11,500ft with another few inches of snow possible.
High temps will be in the upper 50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the lower 30s to lower 40s.
Meteograms provide a lot information in one chart and are very easy to compare. Below are the GFS and Euro meteograms for Wolf Creek. I point out the differences in the notes.
This is a BIG difference that does not instill forecast confidence! In this case, both scenarios are possible. The Euro has a better track record so I will lean towards it for now. Let’s all cheer for the Euro!
Pagosa Springs historical data
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 70 | 82 / 1963 | 32 | 13 / 1993 |
My next post will be tomorrow.
– Shawn
