Off and on showers through at least Wednesday…

We’re seeing a few more fall colors in Pagosa County! Pic taken 9/25/2021

We’re seeing a few more fall colors in Pagosa Country!  Pic taken 9/25/2021

Sunday – 26 Sep 2021 – 8:40am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 78 and the low this morning was 41. The peak wind at the airfield was 28mph.  There was no precip in the last 24 hours.

The cut-off low is moving into southwest AZ and will continue to move slowly northeast.  The low is expected to track over the Raton/Trinidad area on Tuesday.  Moisture and instability will increase as the low gets closer to us.  The best storm energy and our best chance for soaking rain will be Tuesday into Wednesday as the upper level trough moves through. 

Things are fuzzy after this period.  The models indicate another cut-off low will move through the region.  Some models have the second low taking a similar track to the first one with similar wet weather, while other models keep the low farther south with just a few isolated showers in our area.

Water vapor satellite this morning: The low is just moving into southwest AZ and will continue to move slowly towards the northeast.  The best storm energy is currently over central AZ. Today we’ll be on the leading edge of the moisture and instability.
Water vapor satellite this morning: The low is just moving into southwest AZ and will continue to move slowly towards the northeast.  The best storm energy is currently over central AZ. Today we’ll be on the leading edge of the moisture and instability.
Radar this morning: Most of the precip is over the southern half of AZ.  That precip is circulating counterclockwise around the low and moving northeast with the low.  Showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon all the way into southwest CO and southern UT.
Radar this morning: Most of the precip is over the southern half of AZ.  That precip is circulating counterclockwise around the low and moving northeast with the low.  Showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon all the way into southwest CO and southern UT.

My forecast…

Today through Wednesday… There will be more clouds, especially in the afternoons, with scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Today and tomorrow precip will be hit and miss and then become more widespread Tuesday into Wednesday.   I expect accumulating snow to stay above timberline.  By late Wednesday peaks over 12,000ft could have 4-8” of snow.

Winds will peak around 20mph, though convective gusts to 35mph near showers and thunderstorms are possible.

Temps will gradually cool during this period.  We’ll start with highs around 70 to the mid-70s and will finish with highs in the lower to upper 60s.  Lows tonight will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s. And then with the influx of clouds and moisture lows will warm a bit to the upper 30s to upper 40s.

NAM high resolution forecast radar valid from noon today to midnight tomorrow shows a round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and another round tomorrow afternoon.  Today they’ll move roughly south to north and tomorrow they’ll move southeast to northwest.
NAM high resolution forecast radar valid from noon today to midnight tomorrow shows a round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and another round tomorrow afternoon.  Today they’ll move roughly south to north and tomorrow they’ll move southeast to northwest.
NBM precip through Wednesday at midnight indicates 0.50” to 0.75” in the valley and similar amounts in the mountains.
NBM precip through Wednesday at midnight indicates 0.50” to 0.75” in the valley and similar amounts in the mountains.
Euro precip through Wednesday at midnight indicates 0.50” to 0.80” in the valley and up to 1.25” in the mountains.
Euro precip through Wednesday at midnight indicates 0.50” to 0.80” in the valley and up to 1.25” in the mountains.

Thursday through Saturday… Will the next low miss us to the south?  I’ll make a call on this tomorrow.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7081 / 19563317 / 1930

My next post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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