We’re seeing a few more fall colors in Pagosa Country! Pic taken 9/25/2021
Sunday – 26 Sep 2021 – 8:40am
At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 78 and the low this morning was 41. The peak wind at the airfield was 28mph. There was no precip in the last 24 hours.
The cut-off low is moving into southwest AZ and will continue to move slowly northeast. The low is expected to track over the Raton/Trinidad area on Tuesday. Moisture and instability will increase as the low gets closer to us. The best storm energy and our best chance for soaking rain will be Tuesday into Wednesday as the upper level trough moves through.
Things are fuzzy after this period. The models indicate another cut-off low will move through the region. Some models have the second low taking a similar track to the first one with similar wet weather, while other models keep the low farther south with just a few isolated showers in our area.
Today through Wednesday… There will be more clouds, especially in the afternoons, with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Today and tomorrow precip will be hit and miss and then become more widespread Tuesday into Wednesday. I expect accumulating snow to stay above timberline. By late Wednesday peaks over 12,000ft could have 4-8” of snow.
Winds will peak around 20mph, though convective gusts to 35mph near showers and thunderstorms are possible.
Temps will gradually cool during this period. We’ll start with highs around 70 to the mid-70s and will finish with highs in the lower to upper 60s. Lows tonight will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s. And then with the influx of clouds and moisture lows will warm a bit to the upper 30s to upper 40s.
Thursday through Saturday… Will the next low miss us to the south? I’ll make a call on this tomorrow.
Pagosa Springs historical data
|Average High||Record High / Year||Average Low||Record Low / Year|
|70||81 / 1956||33||17 / 1930|
My next post will be tomorrow.