A 24 hour rain window…

Cover

A couple of mountain bikers take advantage of the great weather along Coyote Loop trail this morning.

9-18-21: 11:30am update…

This morning’s downtown launch of balloons for our ColorFest went off wonderfully thanks to great weather and light winds. This afternoon it could be windier with a chance for rain after sunset for the evening balloon launch.

It’s hard to believe as you look outside this morning that a 24 hour rain window will be opening for us starting this afternoon through tomorrow afternoon. An approaching cold front (trough) and a shortwave in front of it will arrive here late this afternoon giving us a chance for rain this evening and Sunday. The best odds for rain will be tonight and tomorrow morning. Storms will be more scattered on Sunday and then a cold front arrives on Monday. At this time, the frontal passage looks just dry and windy. High temperatures will drop a little on Sunday due to cloud cover and rain, then drop again on Monday and Tuesday due to the frontal passage.

Screenshot 2021 09 18 104511
This morning’s mid-level vapor imagery shows our approaching cold front (trough) and a shortwave in front of it that will arrive here late this afternoon giving us a chance for rain this evening and Sunday.
Screenshot 2021 09 18 104259
A shortwave to our west will be tracking towards us over the next 24 hours. The storms on radar will be firing up over us starting tonight and Sunday. As usual, they will be scattered.
Screenshot 2021 09 18 105614
Winds will be gusting to over 30mph on Sunday and Monday.
Screenshot 2021 09 18 105002
Our NWS 3 day rainfall forecast is looking better.

My forecast…

The rest of today and tonight…partly cloudy and breezy with gusts over 20mph this afternoon and highs around 80. By sunset we will be mostly cloudy with a chance for scattered storms. Rain odds ramp up through the night and tomorrow morning. As usual, the storms will be scattered, so there will be rain lottery winners and losers. Lows will be in the 40’s tonight. I think rainfall totals overnight will range from 0.05-0.30.

Sunday-Wednesday: Partly sunny on Sunday with a continued chance for scattered storms. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 60’s with wind gusts over 30mph. A cold front blows through on Monday with cooler temps and wind gusts over 30mph again. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the upper 60’s-low 70’s. Skies will be mostly clear Monday-Wednesday. A freeze is possible for most of our area on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

Thursday-Saturday of next week: High temps will rebound next week into the uppers 70’s again and lows will stay in 30’s and low 40’s. For now I don’t expect any rain during that period.

Shawn takes over on Sunday.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for September 18th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7386 / 19563619 / 1971

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