Mainly virga showers this afternoon, then back to a dry forecast…

Towering Cumulus

It’s so nice to have our beautiful blue skies back! A few mountain hugging PM Poppers will be around this afternoon.

9-14-21: 2pm update…

While its nice to see some poppers on the radar this afternoon, most of the precipitation is not reaching the ground (virga) because it’s so dry at the surface. It’s still possible that a few of our back yards may find 0.01-0.05 inches of rain this afternoon, but the odds are not in our favor. Our tiny rain odds are due to an approaching trough from the north that will eventually drop our temps to closer to normal as the week rolls on. Our mornings are already showing signs of fall as most of us are now waking up to upper 30’s and low 40’s. My home about a mile north of Lake Hatcher hit 36 degrees this morning while the airport’s low was 43. Look for our highs to start falling into the upper 70’s instead of the 80’s. Perfect outdoor weather continues…

Screenshot 2021 09 14 133220
A few PM Poppers are showing up on radar this afternoon. Most of these are staying in the mountains and to our east. Movement is east.
Screenshot 2021 09 12 092355
Our 3 day rainfall forecast is about as exciting as it was 2 days ago…Can you say zero?
Screenshot 2021 09 14 133747
The latest EURO 7 day rainfall forecast is indicating we might get 0.01-0.02 of rainfall over that period.

My forecast…

The rest of today…a chance for scattered showers but most of these will hug the mountains and much of the rain will not reach the ground. A very few of us might see 0.01-0.02 of rainfall if we are lucky. Highs will hit the upper 70’s to low 80’s and winds could gust over 25mph this afternoon especially near a shower.

Wednesday-Tuesday: Mostly sunny with lows in the upper 30’s and low 40’s and highs in around 80 on Wednesday, then cooling to the mid to upper 70’s the rest of the week. We should see afternoon wind gusts over 20mph. Some of the models are indicating another tiny chance for rain early next week.

My next update will be on Thursday.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for September 14th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7492 / 19903724 / 1950

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