Sunny, warm, and dry through Friday…

This weather is fantastic for hiking in the high country! - Pic taken 9/7/2021

This weather is fantastic for hiking in the high country! – Pic taken 9/6/2021

Tuesday – 7 Sep 2021 – 10:25am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 84 and the low this morning was 44. Little Siberia, Mark’s house, had a low of 37… brrrr. When I checked temps at 6am this morning, they varied from 37 to 60 – crazy!  The peak wind at the airfield was 22mph.  There was no precip in the last 24 hours.

A strong high pressure is currently over the Great Basin and will slowly move southeast.  By late Thursday it will be over the Four Corners and by Saturday it will be over central NM. The atmosphere will be dry and stable through Friday.  By Saturday we’ll see a little more moisture and slightly more unstable flow from the southwest.  Smoke from the California fires will be in and out of the area.

GeoColor satellite this morning: The high is over the Great Basin. Smoke is being pushed clockwise around the high pressure center.  Though smoke has increased a little in our area, our mountains are protecting us from the worst of it.
GeoColor satellite this morning: The high is over the Great Basin. Smoke is being pushed clockwise around the high pressure center.  Though smoke has increased a little in our area, our mountains are protecting us from the worst of it.
The smoke map this morning indicates that smoke has increased a little in our area.  The worst smoke is to our north.
The smoke map this morning indicates that smoke has increased a little in our area.  The worst smoke is to our north.

My forecast…

Today through Friday… There will be lots of sun and warm temps – we’ll flirt with record highs. Smoke from the California fires will be in and out of the area all week. Highs will be in the low 80s to upper 80s and lows will be upper 30s to upper 40s.

NWS 72-hour precip has zero precip for us.
NWS 72-hour precip has zero precip for us.

Saturday through Monday… There’s a slight chance for a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mostly over the mountains. High temps will cool a few degrees with highs in the upper 70s to mid-80s and lows will be 40-50.

Euro precip through Monday at midnight has no precip near town and up to 0.15” in the mountains. Other models have none during the period, but this looks reasonable to me. A slight chance is better than no chance!
Euro precip through Monday at midnight has no precip near town and up to 0.15” in the mountains. Other models have none during the period, but this looks reasonable to me. A slight chance is better than no chance!

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7787 / 19853927 / 1912

With quiet weather expected this week, we’ll probably do a post every other day.  My next post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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One Response

  1. The weather is nice… too nice.

    The historical data here (presumably for Sept 7) shows a record high of 87. It felt right about the hot today (the 8th). Are we breaking records this week? Would love to see a recap at some point to check on the skipped days.

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