Great weather this week…

No clouds this morning – just a few geese and the Rio Grande Pyramid! Pic taken 9/5/2021

Sunday – 5 Sep 2021 – 8:20am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 80 and the low this morning was 43. Little Siberia, Mark’s house, had a low of 36… brrrr. The peak wind at the airfield was 21mph. There was no precip in the last 24 hours.

A strong high pressure will sit over the Great Basin most of the week. Northwest to northerly flow aloft will keep the atmosphere dry and stable. Smoke from the California fires will be in and out of the area.

When will the pattern change? By Sunday or Monday, the models hint that the high pressure will weaken and move to our east allowing upper level southwest flow and more moisture to move into the area. That far out, I don’t trust the models so we’re in the “we’ll keep an eye on it” mode.

GeoColor satellite this morning: There are clear skies over much of the western US. We refer to the line between the light and dark as “the terminator” - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminator_(solar) — GeoColor satellite this morning: There are clear skies over much of the western US. We refer to the line between the light and dark as “the terminator” – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminator_(solar)

My forecast…

Today through Saturday… We’ll see lots of sun and pleasant temps. Smoke from the California fires will be in and out of the area all week. Highs will be upper 70s to mid-80s and lows will be upper 30s to upper 40s.

The HRRR smoke forecast for 6pm today indicates a little more smoke will move in, but the thicker smoke will be to our west and north. That high will sit over the Great Basin most of the week and push occasional patches of smoke through our area.

*NWS 72-hour precip has zero precip for us.*

*NBM precip through Saturday at midnight has zero precip in our area. A couple of other models indicate very small areas of minimal convective precip over the mountains, but I don’t expect any.*

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
78	94 / 1950	39	26 / 1971

With quiet weather expected this week, we’ll probably do a post every other day. My next post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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