Lots of sun and pleasant temps…

Last night’s sunset! Pic taken 9/2/2021

Last night’s sunset! Pic taken 9/2/2021

Friday – 3 Sep 2021 – 8:10am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 70 and the low this morning was 50. The peak wind at the airfield was 7mph. There were more clouds than expected this morning and lows were 5-7 warmer than I forecast.

24-hour precip amounts are disappointing.  A band of showers developed in the Telluride/Ridgway area, but there was very little activity on our side of the mountains.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from 0.0” to 0.2”. (A few more reports might be submitted after I send this post.)
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from 0.0” to 0.2”. (A few more reports might be submitted after I send this post.)
NWS mesonet 24-hour precip reports indicate a little rain fell in the last 24 hours.  That 0.21” is a surprise along the upper Navajo River.
NWS mesonet 24-hour precip reports indicate a little rain fell in the last 24 hours.  That 0.21” is a surprise along the upper Navajo River.

The atmosphere is drying and stabilizing as flow gradually turns more westerly. Today there is still a narrow band of moisture in our area so a shower or thunderstorm is possible this afternoon over the mountains.  Most of the week will be sunny with pleasant temps.  As flow turns more westerly and then northwesterly, smoke from the California fires will be in and out of the area.

Mid-level water vapor satellite:  There is still a narrow band of moisture in our area.   That band will slowly dissipate and move east and then drier air will move in.
Mid-level water vapor satellite:  There is still a narrow band of moisture in our area.   That band will slowly dissipate and move east and then drier air will move in. The trough to the north will not impact us.

My forecast…

Today through Thursday… A spotty shower or thunderstorm is possible over the mountains today, otherwise I expect lots of sun and dry weather this week. Smoke from the California fires will be in and out of the area all week. Highs will be mid-70s to mid-80s and lows will be upper 30s to upper 40s.

The HRRR smoke forecast for noon shows a little more smoke moving into the area from the west.
The HRRR smoke forecast for noon shows a little more smoke moving into the area from the west.
3 Sep 2021 am NWS 72hr precip
NWS 72-hour precip has none in the valley and less than 0.05” in the mountains.
NBM precip through Thursday at midnight has one little questionable speck of precip in the county. While a random spot of minimal precip is possible this afternoon, I expect us to be dry most of the week.
NBM precip through Thursday at midnight has one little questionable speck of precip in the county. While a random spot of minimal precip is possible this afternoon, I expect us to be dry most of the week.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7990 / 19554025 / 1973

With quiet weather expected this week, we’ll probably do a post every other day.  My next post will be on Sunday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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