Dry and warm – great weather to play outside!…

What a difference a year makes!  This time last year our mountains got 12-18” of snow.

What a difference a year makes!  This time last year our mountains got 12-18” of snow.

Thursday – 9 Sep 2021 – 11:00am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 85 and the low this morning was 47. Little Siberia, Mark’s house, had a low of 37… brrrr. The peak wind at the airfield was 21mph.  There was no precip in the last 24 hours.

We are seeing 40-50 degree temperature swings between highs and lows.  Those big temperature swings happen mainly for two reasons: 1. It’s dry.  Humidity is in the 20-25% range.  2. We have less sunlight. The equinox is right around the corner.

And yes, it has been quite warm! 

7 Sep the previous record high was 87 set in 1945.  The airfield hit 89 on Tuesday – an unofficial new record! *

8 Sep the record high was 88 set in 1945 and the high at the airfield was 85 – the old record stands.

* Why is it “unofficial”?  The National Weather Service and the National Centers for Environmental Information are the stewards of the data, and they determine records. *

A strong high pressure is currently near the Four Corners and keeping the atmosphere dry and stable.  By Saturday it will be over central NM and we’ll see a little more moisture and slightly more unstable flow from the southwest.  I see potential for gusty afternoon winds all next week. Smoke from the California fires should improve a bit this weekend as flow turns southwesterly and the atmosphere becomes a little less stable.

GeoColor satellite this morning: Except for a few clouds over northern AZ, the Four Corners area is clear. The high is near the Four Corners and moving southeast. Smoke continues to be pushed clockwise around the high pressure center.
GeoColor satellite this morning: Except for a few clouds over northern AZ, the Four Corners area is clear. The high is near the Four Corners and moving southeast. Smoke continues to be pushed clockwise around the high pressure center.
The smoke map this morning indicates that smoke is slowly increasing in our area.  I added the arrows to show how the smoke plumes are moving.
The smoke map this morning indicates that smoke is slowly increasing in our area. I added the arrows to show how the smoke plumes are moving.

My forecast…

Today and tomorrow… There will be lots of sun and warm temps – we’ll flirt with record highs. Smoke from the California fires will stay with us. Highs will be in the lower 80s to around 90 and lows will be upper 30s to upper 40s. Winds will peak around 20mph.

Euro temps and winds for Friday at 6pm: The high temps will occur will occur around 4pm and I think this is about 5 degrees too cool for this time.  Winds are the max gust expected.  This model tends to be around 5mph too strong.
Euro temps and winds for Friday at 6pm: The high temps will occur around 4pm and I think this is about 5 degrees too cool for this time.  Winds are the max gust expected.  This model tends to be around 5mph too strong.

Saturday through Monday… There’s a slight chance for a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mostly over the mountains. Smoke will decrease a bit.  Saturday temps will still be warm with highs in the lower to upper 80s and then we’ll cool a few degrees on Sunday and Monday with highs in the upper 70s to mid-80s.  Lows will be in the upper 30s to upper 40s.  Afternoon winds will peak around 25mph.

Euro precip through Monday at midnight has no precip in the valley and less than 0.10” in the mountains.
Euro precip through Monday at midnight has no precip in the valley and less than 0.10” in the mountains.

Tuesday through Thursday… Lots of sun, dry, and pleasant temps.  Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the upper 30s to upper 40s. Afternoon winds will peak around 25mph.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7688 / 19593919 / 1941

My next post will be Saturday morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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