Rainfall so far…

I did my part to help it rain today! Pic taken 9/1/2021 at 10:20am

I did my part to help it rain today! Pic taken 9/1/2021 at 10:20am

Update: Wednesday – 1 Sep 2021 – 7:45pm

Most of the county has gotten a good soaking!

1 Sep 2021 pm Weather Underground precip at 1924L
Weather Underground precip totals as of 7:24pm average around 0.40″. Disregard those “0” reports. When I zoom in to see more data, there are other reports in the 0.30″ to 0.50″ range near those 0s. Unfortunately I have no control over what Weather Underground displays.

A dry slot will give us a break for the next few hours and then we’ll see another round of showers later tonight. The trough will move through around noon tomorrow but will be much weaker. We still have a decent shot of showers and thunderstorms through tomorrow afternoon, but they’ll be more hit and miss.

1 Sep 2021 pm mid level water vapor
Water vapor this evening shows the dry slot approaching us from the west. That will give us a break for a few hours.
1 Sep 2021 pm radar
Radar this evening indicates that we are on the back edge of the showers. Behind the dry slot is another band of showers that should move through our area later tonight.

My next post will be tomorrow morning.

  • Shawn

Wednesday – 1 Sep 2021 – 9:00am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 84 and the low this morning was 59. The peak wind at the airfield was 16mph. There were a few weak showers in the last 24 hours, mostly over the mountains.  I didn’t see any reports of measurable precip.

The subtropical moisture blob is on our doorstep, and it’s being pushed by a trough.  Periods of heavy rain are likely between noon and midnight.

*** The Grand Junction National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for our mountains valid from 10am to midnight. *** This does not include Pagosa Springs.

By Friday upper level flow will turn more westerly and push most of the monsoonal plume out or our area.  We’ll be back to playing the rain lottery.

Low-level water vapor satellite:  Subtropical moisture is increasing ahead the trough.  Heavy showers and thunderstorms will increase this afternoon as the trough approaches.
Low-level water vapor satellite:  Subtropical moisture is increasing ahead of the trough.  Heavy showers and thunderstorms will increase this afternoon as the trough approaches.
Radar: The first few weak showers are moving through our area this morning.  The best storm energy and moisture are still to our southwest.  Individual showers are moving north-northeast 25-35mph while the whole area of showers is moving slowly towards the northeast ahead of the trough.
Radar: The first few weak showers are moving through our area this morning.  The best storm energy and moisture are still to our southwest.  Individual showers are moving north-northeast 25-35mph while the whole area of showers is moving slowly towards the northeast ahead of the trough.

My forecast…

Today and tomorrow… The first few showers are possible before noon.  The heaviest precip will fall between noon and midnight today.  Precip will be showery with brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.  Off and on showers will persist through tomorrow afternoon.

Highs will be upper 60s to low 70s. Lows tonight will be in the 50s and Thursday night they’ll be in the low 40s to low 50s.

The high resolution NAM forecast radar from 11am to 1am tonight shows most of the precip between 1pm and 6pm and then spotty heavy showers persist to midnight.
The high resolution NAM forecast radar from 11am to 1am tonight shows most of the precip between 1pm and 6pm and then spotty heavy showers persist to midnight.
NWS 72hr precip shows 0.90” near town and up to 1.25” in our mountains.  Most of this precip will fall before midnight tonight and I expect amounts to vary considerably.
NWS 72hr precip shows 0.90” near town and up to 1.25” in our mountains.  Most of this precip will fall before midnight tonight and I expect amounts to vary considerably.

Friday through Sunday… Monsoonal moisture will dwindle but we’ll still see isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be upper 30s to upper 40s.

The Euro 120hr precip between Friday morning and next Wednesday morning shows around 0.05” in the valley and 0.15” in our mountains.
The Euro 120hr precip between Friday morning and next Wednesday morning shows around 0.05” in the valley and 0.15” in our mountains.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7890 / 19854130 / 1962

I’ll do an update later today.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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3 Responses

  1. Thanks for the update! I got out in the garden early today and picked all the red cherry tomatoes to keep from losing them to wind and weather. Now what to do with 5 pounds of cherry tomatoes…

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