So nice to get rain! How much did you get?…

It’s great to see a nearly full rain gauge! Pic taken 9/2/2021

It’s great to see a nearly full rain gauge! Pic taken 9/2/2021

Thursday – 2 Sep 2021 – 9:00am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 72 and the low this morning was 54. The peak wind at the airfield was 25mph.

24-hour precip amounts across the county look good this morning!

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from 0.45” to 0.80”
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from 0.45” to 0.80”
NWS mesonet 24-hour precip reports in Archuleta County range from 0.47” to 0.97”
NWS mesonet 24-hour precip reports in Archuleta County range from 0.47” to 0.97”

The subtropical moisture plumb has pushed through to our east.  The trough has weakened to the point it’s not apparent on satellite.  We still have upper level southwest flow, a bit of moisture, and a bit of instability to give us spotty showers and thunderstorms today.

By Friday and Saturday upper level flow will turn more westerly and push most of the moisture out of our area.  We’ll be back to playing the rain lottery.

Sunday through Wednesday the atmosphere will dry out and stabilize further.

Mid-level water vapor satellite:  The subtropical moisture plume has pushed to our east. Flow is still southwest so that little batch of moisture over central AZ will move our way and help fuel convective activity today.
Mid-level water vapor satellite:  The subtropical moisture plume has pushed to our east. Flow is still southwest so that little batch of moisture over central AZ will move our way and help fuel convective activity today.

My forecast…

Today… Spotty showers and thunderstorms will develop as we warm up.  Clouds will clear tonight leading to a chilly morning and patchy fog.

Highs will be upper 60s to low 70s. Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

NWS 72hr precip shows 0.15” near town and up to 0.30” in our mountains.  Most of this precip will fall this afternoon. It’s all convective precip so I think amounts will vary between nothing and 0.25”.
NWS 72hr precip shows 0.15” near town and up to 0.30” in our mountains.  Most of this precip will fall this afternoon. It’s all convective precip so I think amounts will vary between nothing and 0.25”.

Friday and Saturday… Showers and thunderstorms will be few and far between, mostly over the mountains. Smoke will increase a bit from the California fires. Highs will be mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be upper 30s to upper 40s.

The HRRR smoke forecast for tomorrow at noon shows a little more smoke moving into the area from the west.
The HRRR smoke forecast for tomorrow at noon shows a little more smoke moving into the area from the west.

Sunday through Wednesday… A spotty shower or thunderstorm is possible over the mountains, but I expect this period to be dry and a bit more smoky. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the upper 30-s to mid-40s.

The Euro 120hr precip between Sunday morning and next Friday morning shows none in town up to and 0.25” in our mountains. Other models show zero precip through this period. I think this product is a bit too optimistic
The Euro 120hr precip between Sunday morning and next Friday morning shows none in town up to and 0.25” in our mountains. Other models show zero precip through this period. I think this product is a bit too optimistic

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7990 / 19504030 / 1944

I’ll do the August summary later today.  My next forecast post will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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