It’s great to see a nearly full rain gauge! Pic taken 9/2/2021
Thursday – 2 Sep 2021 – 9:00am
Overall situation…
At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 72 and the low this morning was 54. The peak wind at the airfield was 25mph.
24-hour precip amounts across the county look good this morning!


The subtropical moisture plumb has pushed through to our east. The trough has weakened to the point it’s not apparent on satellite. We still have upper level southwest flow, a bit of moisture, and a bit of instability to give us spotty showers and thunderstorms today.
By Friday and Saturday upper level flow will turn more westerly and push most of the moisture out of our area. We’ll be back to playing the rain lottery.
Sunday through Wednesday the atmosphere will dry out and stabilize further.

My forecast…
Today… Spotty showers and thunderstorms will develop as we warm up. Clouds will clear tonight leading to a chilly morning and patchy fog.
Highs will be upper 60s to low 70s. Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

Friday and Saturday… Showers and thunderstorms will be few and far between, mostly over the mountains. Smoke will increase a bit from the California fires. Highs will be mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be upper 30s to upper 40s.

Sunday through Wednesday… A spotty shower or thunderstorm is possible over the mountains, but I expect this period to be dry and a bit more smoky. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the upper 30-s to mid-40s.

Pagosa Springs historical data
Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
79 | 90 / 1950 | 40 | 30 / 1944 |
I’ll do the August summary later today. My next forecast post will be tomorrow morning.
– Shawn