Cumulus clouds building over Graham Peak. Pic taken 8/31/2021
Tuesday – 31 Aug 2021 – 4:15pm
Overall situation…
At Stevens Field the high so far today has been 84 and the low this morning was 49. The peak wind at the airfield today has been 16mph. There have been a few weak showers over the mountains today, but I haven’t seen any measurable precip.
Residual moisture from Nora will feed into a monsoonal plume that will impact us from late tomorrow morning to Thursday afternoon. The heaviest rain will fall between noon and midnight tomorrow.
*** The Grand Junction National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for our mountains valid from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. *** This does not include Pagosa Springs.
By Friday upper level flow will turn more westerly and push most of the monsoonal plume out of our area. We’ll be back to playing the rain lottery.



My forecast…
Tomorrow and Thursday… Moisture and clouds will increase by late tomorrow morning giving us a chance for showers and thunderstorms through Thursday afternoon. The heaviest precip is most likely between noon and midnight tomorrow. Precip will be showery with brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning likely.
Highs will be upper 60s to low 70s. Lows tomorrow night will be in the 50s and Thursday night they’ll be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

Friday through Sunday… Monsoonal moisture will dwindle but we’ll still see isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be 40-50.
Pagosa Springs historical data
Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
79 | 90 / 1985 | 41 | 30 / 1962 |
My next post will be tomorrow morning.
– Shawn