Flood watch for the mountains tomorrow…

Cumulus clouds building over Graham Peak. Pic taken 8/31/2021

Cumulus clouds building over Graham Peak. Pic taken 8/31/2021

Tuesday – 31 Aug 2021 – 4:15pm

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high so far today has been 84 and the low this morning was 49. The peak wind at the airfield today has been 16mph. There have been a few weak showers over the mountains today, but I haven’t seen any measurable precip.

Residual moisture from Nora will feed into a monsoonal plume that will impact us from late tomorrow morning to Thursday afternoon.  The heaviest rain will fall between noon and midnight tomorrow.

*** The Grand Junction National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for our mountains valid from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. *** This does not include Pagosa Springs.

By Friday upper level flow will turn more westerly and push most of the monsoonal plume out of our area.  We’ll be back to playing the rain lottery.

Water vapor satellite:  Moisture is streaming into the region from the southwest and will continue to increase.
Water vapor satellite:  Moisture is streaming into the region from the southwest and will continue to increase.
Radar: If you look closely, you can see a few weak showers over our mountains, but most of the action is well to our south in southern AZ. The moisture currently over southern AZ will be over us by tomorrow afternoon.
Radar: If you look closely, you can see a few weak showers over our mountains, but most of the action is well to our south in southern AZ. The moisture currently over southern AZ will be over us by tomorrow afternoon.
Smoke this afternoon has improved and will likely continue to do so as flow turns more southwesterly.
Smoke this afternoon has improved and will likely continue to do so as flow turns more southwesterly.

My forecast…

Tomorrow and Thursday… Moisture and clouds will increase by late tomorrow morning giving us a chance for showers and thunderstorms through Thursday afternoon.  The heaviest precip is most likely between noon and midnight tomorrow.  Precip will be showery with brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning likely.

Highs will be upper 60s to low 70s. Lows tomorrow night will be in the 50s and Thursday night they’ll be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

NWS 66hr precip shows 1.10” near town and up to 1.50” in in the southern San Juans.  I expect precip amounts to vary considerably.
NWS 66hr precip shows 1.10” near town and up to 1.50” in in the southern San Juans.  I expect precip amounts to vary considerably.

Friday through Sunday… Monsoonal moisture will dwindle but we’ll still see isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be 40-50.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7990 / 19854130 / 1962

My next post will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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