Yesterday’s sunset. Pic taken 8/29/2021
Monday – 30 Aug 2021 – 8:15pm
At Stevens Field the high today was 85 and the low this morning was 47. The peak wind at the airfield was 16mph. I didn’t see any raindrops in Archuleta County today.
Just like the last couple of days, we’ll be on the edge of the monsoonal moisture plume. There is just enough instability and moisture for a few spotty showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.
Nora moved a little farther east over land than expected and pretty much went “poof”. The moisture will feed into a monsoonal plume that will impact us Wednesday and Thursday. Contrary to yesterday, the models are quite inconsistent. Precip amounts range from 0.25” to around 1.50” – that’s a wide range that does not instill confidence. Clouds and moisture will increase by Wednesday afternoon and only be with us about 36 hours – not the three days I expected yesterday.
The models diverge even more beyond Thursday. Some models keep a marginal monsoonal moisture plume in the area giving us a decent chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, while others dry things out. For now, I will be optimistic!
Tomorrow… Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be few and far between. Consider yourself lucky if you get measurable precip. Afternoons will peak around 20mph through isolated gusts to 35mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.
Highs will be in the low to mid-80s and lows will be 40-50.
Wednesday and Thursday… Moisture and clouds will increase after noon on Wednesday giving us a good chance for showers and thunderstorms through Thursday afternoon. Brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning are likely.
Wednesday highs will be mid-70s to low 80s and lows will in the 50s. Thursday highs will be upper 60s to low 70s and lows will be mid-40s to mid-50s.
Friday through Sunday… Monsoonal moisture will dwindle but we’ll still see scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be 40-50.
Pagosa Springs historical data
|Average High||Record High / Year||Average Low||Record Low / Year|
|79||91 / 1990||42||25 / 1956|
My next post will be tomorrow afternoon.