We’ll get wet starting Wednesday afternoon…

Yesterday’s sunset. Pic taken 8/29/2021

Yesterday’s sunset. Pic taken 8/29/2021

Monday – 30 Aug 2021 – 8:15pm

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high today was 85 and the low this morning was 47. The peak wind at the airfield was 16mph. I didn’t see any raindrops in Archuleta County today.

Just like the last couple of days, we’ll be on the edge of the monsoonal moisture plume.  There is just enough instability and moisture for a few spotty showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.

Nora moved a little farther east over land than expected and pretty much went “poof”.  The moisture will feed into a monsoonal plume that will impact us Wednesday and Thursday.  Contrary to yesterday, the models are quite inconsistent.  Precip amounts range from 0.25” to around 1.50” – that’s a wide range that does not instill confidence.  Clouds and moisture will increase by Wednesday afternoon and only be with us about 36 hours – not the three days I expected yesterday. 

The models diverge even more beyond Thursday.  Some models keep a marginal monsoonal moisture plume in the area giving us a decent chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, while others dry things out.  For now, I will be optimistic!

Water vapor satellite:  We’re on the edge of the monsoonal moisture plume. There is very little left of Nora but it will get absorbed into the monsoonal plume and move over us by Wednesday afternoon.
Water vapor satellite:  We’re on the edge of the monsoonal moisture plume. There is very little left of Nora but it will get absorbed into the monsoonal plume and move over us by Wednesday afternoon.
Smoke this evening is mostly “light” in our area with the thicker smoke to our north.
Smoke this evening is mostly “light” in our area with the thicker smoke to our north.

My forecast…

Tomorrow… Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be few and far between.  Consider yourself lucky if you get measurable precip. Afternoons will peak around 20mph through isolated gusts to 35mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Highs will be in the low to mid-80s and lows will be 40-50. 

The High Resolution Rapid Refresh model noon to midnight tomorrow shows isolated showers, mostly over the mountains.
The High Resolution Rapid Refresh model noon to midnight tomorrow shows isolated showers, mostly over the mountains.

Wednesday and Thursday… Moisture and clouds will increase after noon on Wednesday giving us a good chance for showers and thunderstorms through Thursday afternoon.  Brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning are likely.

Wednesday highs will be mid-70s to low 80s and lows will in the 50s. Thursday highs will be upper 60s to low 70s and lows will be mid-40s to mid-50s.

NWS 78hr precip through Thursday evening shows 0.70” near town and up to 1.25” in our mountains.  I expect precip amounts to vary considerably.  Rain lottery winners will get over an inch.
NWS 78hr precip through Thursday evening shows 0.70” near town and up to 1.25” in our mountains.  I expect precip amounts to vary considerably.  Rain lottery winners will get over an inch.

Friday through Sunday… Monsoonal moisture will dwindle but we’ll still see scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be 40-50.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7991 / 19904225 / 1956

My next post will be tomorrow afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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