Pretty quiet through Tuesday…

Meet Merle! This handsome hound-mix at the Pagosa Springs Humane Society is looking for a forever home. We walked him today – he’s good on a leash and very affectionate. Those ears are very soft! Pic taken 8/29/2021

Sunday – 29 Aug 2021 – 2:30pm

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 82 and the low this morning was 48. The peak wind at the airfield yesterday was 29mph.

We had a few rain lottery winners yesterday! There were reports in the Hatcher Lake and Wildflower areas up to 0.55”.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from zero to 0.40”*

We’re on the edge of the monsoonal moisture plume. Instability and moisture are borderline for afternoon showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday. A few will pop up, mostly over the mountains. They’ll be slow movers.

Wednesday through Friday we’re keeping a close eye on Nora. The models continue to be consistent and indicate a favorable track for us to get a good soaking. Clouds and moisture will increase by Wednesday afternoon and stick with us through Friday. Precip will be off and on (showery) – it will rain heavily at times.

*Water vapor satellite: Ida has made landfall on the LA coast. Nora is moving slowly northwest into the Gulf of California. We’re on the edge of the monsoonal moisture plume.*

*Radar shows showers mostly over the mountains. They’re moving very slowly towards the east-northeast. Movement is so slow that one will likely have to build over your head to get any rain.*

My forecast…

Today through Tuesday… Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be few and far between. Consider yourself lucky if you get measurable precip. Afternoon winds will peak around 20mph through isolated gusts to 35mph are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Highs will be in the low to mid-80s and lows will be 40-50.

*NWS 72hr precip shows less than 0.05” over most of the county.*

Wednesday through Friday… Subtropical moisture ahead of the remnants of Nora will move into the area by Wednesday afternoon and should stay with us through Friday. We’ll see more clouds and a good chance for most of the county to get a soaking rain.

Wednesday will still be warm with high temps in the low to mid-80s. The increase in humidity should be noticeable by afternoon. Wednesday night increased moisture and clouds will keep our low temps a bit warmer, mostly in the 50s. Thursday and Friday highs will be upper 60s to low 70s and lows will be upper 40s to mid-50s.

NBM precip through Friday at midnight shows 1.00” to 1.25” over most of the county. Some modes show up to 2.50” in our area! — *NBM precip through Friday at midnight shows 1.00” to 1.25” over most of the county. Some models show up to 2.50” in our area!*

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
79	89 / 1990	42	25 / 1986

My next post will be tomorrow afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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2 Responses

Phil Rosenstein says:

August 29, 2021 at 3:18 pm

My neighbor Phil S. Told me to follow your account. I’ve been reading for your emails since the Spring. I like the pictures and find the forecasts to be better than some of the online weather websites. I live out near Lake Hatcher and I’m going to be paying close attention this winter with snowfall totals (this is very important to me as I live on my own).

And thank you for walking our animals at the Humane Society. I think that’s great. I’ve been volunteering there since I moved to town in 2015.

Phil

Reply
1. Arleen Pro says:
  
  August 29, 2021 at 4:10 pm
  
  Phil, welcome! Thank you for the kind words & thank you for following us. I’ll have a winter outlook the end of September. We’d love to hear what your snow totals are. I’m going to put together a snow measuring workshop. Hope to have it in person.
  
  A thank you for volunteering at the humane society too. I’m sure we’ll meet you there some day.
  
  Reply

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