Yes, this post is very similar to yesterday’s!

Cumulus

A towering cumulus cloud drifts over Pagosa Peak yesterday afternoon.

8-28-21: 2:30pm update…

Another afternoon of PM Poppers…unfortunately most of us have yet to see much rain this week, but all it takes is one slow mover to quickly drop 1/4 of an inch of rain into your rain gauge. A shortwave to our north will move out by later today, switching our mid-level winds into a zonal pattern (west-east) until later in the week. Even with the drier air in place, we will continue to see scattered afternoon storms over the next couple of days while we wait for Nora to arrive by the middle of the week (not here, but in NE Baja).

Unfortunately, a zonal pattern will also usher in some smoke from those omnipresent fires in California. Fortunately for us we will be on the south side of the heavier smoke stream.

By Wednesday we will shift back into a monsoon flow (SW) just in time for Hurricane Nora’s moisture to flow into the desert SW and eventually into our area. That will not only drive the smoke away but give us a great chance for rain!

Screenshot 2021 08 28 142536
Thanks to a zonal pattern (west-east) smoke will be returning on Monday and Tuesday of next week.
Screenshot 2021 08 27 132657 1
Our radar at 2:15pm shows a few PM Poppers out there again. Storms are slowly moving SE today.
173502 5day cone no line and wind 2
The latest track of Nora keeps her a tropical storm through Thursday. This should be a great position for giving us a boost in our rain by Wednesday night-Saturday of next week.
Screenshot 2021 08 27 131931 1
The latest EURO model run shows shows that moisture from Nora will stream into the mid-levels of our atmosphere starting on Wednesday evening.

My forecast…

The rest of today…a chance for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Since this is convective activity we could see 0-0.25 of rain this afternoon…yes, rain lottery winners and losers as usual. Any storms that do develop will have the potential to produce wind gusts over 30mph and lightning.

Sunday-Wednesday: Scattered storms each afternoon. Look for lows in the 40’s and highs in the upper 70’s to low 80’s. Winds will be 10-15 mph with some gusts over 25mph in the afternoons. Any storms that do develop will have the potential to produce wind gusts over 30mph and lightning. I think rain totals will range from 0.10-0.30 through the period.

Wednesday night-Saturday: Numerous storms and showers under mostly cloudy skies with highs in the 60’s and lows in the upper 40’s to 50’s. Based on the latest Nora track, 1-2 inches of rain during this time period is possible.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for August 28th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8088 / 19904224 / 1956

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