Waiting on Nora…

Nora

If Tropical Storm Nora continues on this track, she will be a major impact on our weather next week.

8-27-21: 1:30pm update…

Yesterday’s “everything looks good on paper” forecast has been tossed into my paper shredder this morning! While storms did indeed form along and in front of the trough, they stayed away from Archuleta County for the most part. A remote sensor in Chama recorded 0.34, but that doesn’t exactly impact our backyards here.

The good news is that our rain odds are not zero for the next four days as we wait for the arrival of Nora. We should see PM Poppers each afternoon as enough moisture on the surface and mid-levels will allow for storm formation each afternoon as the land warms under an abundance of sunshine.

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Our radar at 1:30pm is looking more impressive than it did yesterday! Storms are slowly moving ENE.
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The average 3 day precipitation forecast from the NWS is still pretty low but one afternoon thunderstorm parked over your backyard could drop a quick 0.25.

As mentioned yesterday, we now have Tropical Storm Nora to watch in the Eastern Pacific. Since my last post, the storm is now forecast to track a little further east, threading the needle of the Gulf of California and keeping the storm together longer than was forecast yesterday. The further north it goes the more rain for us!

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The latest track of Nora takes her further north and east than yesterday’s forecast. This would be great for our rain odds late next week.
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The latest EURO model run shows shows that moisture from Nora will stream into the mid-levels of our atmosphere late next week.

My forecast…

The rest of today…a chance for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Since this is convective activity we could see 0-0.25 of rain this afternoon…yes, rain lottery winners and losers as usual. Any storms that do develop will have the potential to produce wind gusts over 30mph and lightning.

Friday-Wednesday: Scattered storms each afternoon. Look for lows in the 40’s and highs in the upper 70’s to low 80’s. Winds will be 10-15 mph with some gusts over 25mph in the afternoons. Any storms that do develop will have the potential to produce wind gusts over 30mph and lightning. I think rain totals will range from 0.10-0.30 through the period. By later next week we will see a definite increase in rain as Nora moves into the northern Gulf of California.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for August 27th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7990 / 19854329 / 1956

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