Looking good on paper!

Lenticular

We’ve got some lenticular and towering cumulus clouds forming this afternoon as our atmosphere becomes unstable.

8-26-21: 2:00pm update…

Everything is looking good on paper this afternoon as moisture is flowing into the mid-levels of our atmosphere from the SW, dew points and temperatures are rising and we have an approaching trough to our west that is activating storms to our SW. Now we just need all of this to go beyond paper and drop some rain!

Screenshot 2021 08 26 132119
A trough moving our direction and increasing our rain odds this afternoon as the mid-level of our atmosphere becomes more saturated.
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Since storms will be scattered, the average 3 day precipitation forecast from the NWS is still pretty low, but I think most of us will get more rain than they are forecasting.
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Storms are currently forming to our SW this afternoon and moving our direction. Let’s hope they hold together or form over us!

We now have Tropical Storm Nora to watch in the Eastern Pacific. Latest model runs show a good chance that moisture from this storm will eventually move our direction later next week as our mid-level flow continues out of the SW. The bigger and longer this storm lasts, the better odds for us getting 1-2 inches of rain next week.

173805 5day cone no line and wind
We now have Tropical Storm Nora! If she can hang in there and make to Baja California, there is a good chance we will tap into some of her moisture as she goes poof next week.
qpf acc.conus
The latest EURO model run shows how much rainfall may fall next week thanks to Nora.
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According to the latest Farmer’s Almanac winter forecast, we’ll be somewhere between average winter precipitation and temperatures and “Numb’s the Word”. As with all long range forecasts, “we shall see”!

My forecast…

The rest of today…a good chance for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Since this is convective activity we could see 0-0.50 of rain this afternoon…yes, rain lottery winners and losers as usual. Any storms that do develop will have the potential to produce wind gusts over 30mph and lightning.

Friday-Wednesday: Scattered storms each afternoon. Look for lows in the 40’s and highs in the upper 70’s to low 80’s. Winds will be 10-15 mph with some gusts over 25mph in the afternoons. Any storms that do develop will have the potential to produce wind gusts over 30mph and lightning. I think rain totals will range from 0.10-0.50 through the period. By later next week we could see a definite increase in rain depending on what happens with Nora. I’ll be watching!

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for August 26th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7988 / 19854226 / 1956

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