“Blue skies, nothing but blue skies, from now on”…well, at least for the foreseeable future! My two weather stations are in the lower half of the image.
8-25-21: 9:30am update…
Unfortunately the Weather Gods did not read my forecast earlier this week when I forecast a chance for afternoon thunderstorms for every day! Drier air on the surface and aloft has put the kibosh on storm formation over the past 24 hours and will do so again today. Fortunately, thanks to a trough that is moving in from the Pacific NW today, we will see the odds for storms and rain showers ramping up again as early as tomorrow morning as a pretty decent uptick in moisture on the surface and mid-levels of the atmosphere occurs for at least 36 hours. Even though rain odds will be trending lower after this system moves through, there will be more disturbances over the next several days to keep rain in the forecast.
I know it sounds funny for a land-locked area to be watching the tropics, but we will be doing so! There is a 90% chance that a tropical system may form off the coast of Mexico in the next 5 days and unlike most storms that track to the west, this one may move northwestward into Baja California. If that occurs, then some of the moisture from the storm could flow into the SW next week, increasing our rain chances. In fact, the latest 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts are indicating a trend towards wetter than average conditions.
My forecast…
The rest of today…Perma-blue skies with a few decorative cumulus clouds.
Thursday-Tuesday: A good chance for morning showers on Thursday morning and afternoon storms in the afternoon. From Friday on, we go back to scattered storms each afternoon. Look for lows in the 40’s and highs in the upper 70’s to low 80’s. Winds will be 10-15 mph with some gusts over 25mph in the afternoons. Any storms that do develop will have the potential to produce wind gusts over 30mph and lightning. I think rain totals will range from 0.10-0.40 through the period. As usual, there will be rain lottery winners and losers!
-Mark Langford
Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.
Pagosa Springs historical data for August 25th.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 79 | 87 / 1985 | 43 | 33 / 1975 |
