Back on the rain track starting tomorrow morning…

Blue skies

“Blue skies, nothing but blue skies, from now on”…well, at least for the foreseeable future! My two weather stations are in the lower half of the image.

8-25-21: 9:30am update…

Unfortunately the Weather Gods did not read my forecast earlier this week when I forecast a chance for afternoon thunderstorms for every day! Drier air on the surface and aloft has put the kibosh on storm formation over the past 24 hours and will do so again today. Fortunately, thanks to a trough that is moving in from the Pacific NW today, we will see the odds for storms and rain showers ramping up again as early as tomorrow morning as a pretty decent uptick in moisture on the surface and mid-levels of the atmosphere occurs for at least 36 hours. Even though rain odds will be trending lower after this system moves through, there will be more disturbances over the next several days to keep rain in the forecast.

Screenshot 2021 08 25 081907
A trough is currently digging into the Pacific NW and will be bringing in needed moisture into our mid-levels and surface on Thursday and Friday, giving us a much better chance for rain and storms.
Screenshot 2021 08 25 083345
Precipitable water will be over an inch (a good thing) on Thursday. This means that if a storm hits your backyard you could see over an inch of rain in a short time. As usual, storms will be scattered, so there will be rain lottery winners and losers.
Screenshot 2021 08 25 083940
Since storms will be scattered, the average 3 day precipitation forecast from the NWS is still pretty low, but I’ll take 0.13 of an inch compared to zero!

I know it sounds funny for a land-locked area to be watching the tropics, but we will be doing so! There is a 90% chance that a tropical system may form off the coast of Mexico in the next 5 days and unlike most storms that track to the west, this one may move northwestward into Baja California. If that occurs, then some of the moisture from the storm could flow into the SW next week, increasing our rain chances. In fact, the latest 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts are indicating a trend towards wetter than average conditions.

two pac 5d1
There is a 90% chance a tropical cyclone may form off the coast of Mexico over the next 5 days.
95E gefs latest
Some of the models are forecasting a tropical cyclone to form and track into Baja California over the next week. This could boost our rainfall chances here with a SW flow in place next week. 1
The latest 6-10 day precipitation probability has us in the Green Zone for greater than normal odds for rain.
off14 prcp
Here is the latest precipitation outlook for September. The White Zone indicates that our odds for precipitation will be about average…that’s a good thing!

My forecast…

The rest of today…Perma-blue skies with a few decorative cumulus clouds.

Thursday-Tuesday: A good chance for morning showers on Thursday morning and afternoon storms in the afternoon. From Friday on, we go back to scattered storms each afternoon. Look for lows in the 40’s and highs in the upper 70’s to low 80’s. Winds will be 10-15 mph with some gusts over 25mph in the afternoons. Any storms that do develop will have the potential to produce wind gusts over 30mph and lightning. I think rain totals will range from 0.10-0.40 through the period. As usual, there will be rain lottery winners and losers!

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam ( for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for August 25th.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7987 / 19854333 / 1975

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