Chance for PM Poppers all week…

Sunflower

A loan sunflower growing near one of our Aspens appears to be enjoying our wonderful weather this afternoon.

8-23-21: 2pm update…

Another wonderful day in Pagosa Springs. Unlike yesterday when the cumulus clouds were only decorative, today’s have the potential to turn in to scattered storms as the day progresses.

Screenshot 2021 08 23 132613
As advertised, a few scattered storms are popping up on radar this afternoon and moving NE. Such will be the case all week as we continue to be in a SW flow aloft.

As mentioned yesterday, there will be a chance for very scattered afternoon storms Monday-Sunday as a trough digs into the the Great Basin and a series of shortwave troughs switch our mid-level winds into the SW. Temperatures will continue to stay in the average range with lows in the 40’s and highs around 80. The models that were predicting a cold front early next week with rain have changed their minds today and have gone dry with no front. 😒 We are still a week away so they could change their minds several more times!

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Today’s 3 day NWS rainfall forecast looks a whole lot like yesterday’s! Storms will be very scattered this week.
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Precipitable water is fairly low (0.20) compared with typical monsoon amounts over 0.50. This gives us an idea of how much rain could fall from a thunderstorm if it were to find your backyard. I’d be happy with 0.20!

My forecast…

The rest of today…Perma-blue skies with a few decorative cumulus clouds turning themselves into wildly scattered storms later this afternoon.

Tuesday-Sunday: A chance for afternoon storms each afternoon, with the best odds now on Thursday. Look for lows in the 40’s and highs in the upper 70’s to low 80’s. Winds will be 10-15 mph with some gusts over 25mph in the afternoons. Any storms that do develop will have the potential to produce wind gusts over 30mph and lightning. I think rain totals will range from 0-0.20 through the period. As usual, there will be rain lottery winners and losers!

8-24-21: 7:45am quick update…Drier air aloft and on the surface has moved into our area today, reducing our afternoon thunderstorm chances to almost zero. I’ll have a complete post on Wednesday, including the latest 6-10 and September outlook from NOAA.

-Mark Langford

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

Pagosa Springs historical data for August 23d.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7991 / 19104429 / 1956

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