Spotty showers and thunderstorms today…

It’s great to see rain in the rain gauge! Pic taken 8/19/2021

It’s great to see rain in the rain gauge!  Pic taken 8/19/2021

Thursday – 19 Aug 2021 – 9:30am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 82 and the low this morning was 47. The peak wind at the airfield was 39mph.

Most of the county got decent precip!

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from 0.12” to 0.44”
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from 0.12” to 0.44”
NWS mesonet 24-hour precip indicates that most of the area did pretty good
NWS mesonet 24-hour precip indicates that most of the area did pretty good

The trough is moving slower than I expected. It will move through our area tonight.  Instability and moisture ahead of it will increase leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Snow is possible above 13,000ft in the mountains! By tomorrow and through much of next week, drier air and more stable conditions will take over leading to very few afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Satellite this morning shows the low over northern NV and it’s moving east-northeast.  The tailing trough is moving into western UT and moving slower than I expected.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible until the trough moves through tonight.
Satellite this morning shows the low over northern NV and it’s moving east-northeast.  The tailing trough is moving into western UT and moving slower than I expected.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible until the trough moves through tonight. 
Radar shows a few weak spotty showers over the county as I type, but most of the action is to our west just ahead of the trough. The showers are moving towards the northeast and the whole thing is sliding east.
Radar shows a few weak spotty showers over the county as I type, but most of the action is to our west just ahead of the trough. The showers are moving towards the northeast and the whole thing is sliding east.
The smoke has improved a bit ahead of the trough.
The smoke has improved a bit ahead of the trough.

My forecast…

Today… We’ll see scattered showers and thunderstormsStorms will be capable of quick bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

High temps will be in the 60s and lows will be in the upper 30s to mid-40s. Afternoon winds will peak in the 25-30mph range with isolated gusts up to 40mph possible near showers and thunderstorms.

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.12” near town and up to 0.40” in our mountains.  Precip will be spotty.  A few lucky spots will get another 0.25” today.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.12” near town and up to 0.40” in our mountains.  Precip will be spotty.  A few lucky spots will get another 0.25” today.

Friday through Wednesday… Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be few and far between.  Consider yourself lucky if you get measurable precip. Afternoons will be breezy with peak winds in the 20-25mph range.

Friday high temps will be around 70 to the mid-70s and lows will be mid-30s to mid-40s. Friday night will be the coldest with chilly spots flirting with freezing.  Saturday, Sunday, and Monday high temps will be mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be upper 30s to mid-40s.  By Tuesday highs will be in the 80s and lows will be in the 40s.

NBM precip through Wednesday at midnight shows around 0.10” in the valley and up to 0.40” in our mountains.  Most of this precip will fall today.
NBM precip through Wednesday at midnight shows around 0.10” in the valley and up to 0.40” in our mountains.  Most of this precip will fall today.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8092 / 19864427 / 1950

My next update will be tomorrow afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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