Wet late this afternoon to Thursday evening…

A cheery sunflower and Pagosa Peak this morning.  Pic taken 8/18/2021

A cheery sunflower and Pagosa Peak this morning.  Pic taken 8/18/2021

Wednesday – 18 Aug 2021 – 12:10pm

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 83 and the low this morning was 47. The peak wind at the airfield yesterday was 22mph. I didn’t see any precip on our side of the Divide.

A fall-like system is moving east through the Great Basin. The trough will move through our area around noon tomorrow.  Instability and moisture will increase ahead the system leading to a good chance for showers and thunderstorms starting late this afternoon and continuing off and on through the night and into Thursday evening.  Snow is possible above 13,000ft in the central and northern Colorado mountains! By Friday, drier air and more stable conditions will move in behind the system leading to very isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Satellite this morning shows the trough moving east across the Great Basin. Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the trough over much of the region as moisture and instability increase this afternoon.
Satellite this morning shows the trough moving east across the Great Basin. Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the trough over much of the region as moisture and instability increase this afternoon.
Radar shows precip ahead of the trough.  Precip will increase in coverage and intensity as it warms up today.
Radar shows precip ahead of the trough. Precip will increase in coverage and intensity as it warms up today.
We are currently in the “medium” smoke.  Smoke will improve a bit ahead of the trough tonight and then get worse behind it tomorrow afternoon.
We are currently in the “medium” smoke.  Smoke will improve a bit ahead of the trough tonight and then get worse behind it tomorrow afternoon.

My forecast…

Today and Tomorrow… Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase by late afternoon and continue off and on through much of tonight. Tomorrow afternoon will also be active.  Storms will be capable of quick bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Temps today will peak in the mid-70s to lower 80s and lows will be mid-40s to the lower 50s.  High temps tomorrow will be in the 60s and lows will be in the upper 30s to mid-40s. Afternoon winds will peak around 25mph with isolated gusts up to 40mph possible near showers and thunderstorms.

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.30” near town and up to 0.50” in our mountains.  The heaviest precip will stay to our west and north.
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.30” near town and up to 0.50” in our mountains.  The heaviest precip will stay to our west and north.

Friday through Tuesday… Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be few and far between.  High temps will be mid-70s to the low-80s and lows will be mid-30s to mid-40s. Friday night will be the coldest with chilly spots flirting with freezing.  

NBM precip through Tuesday at midnight shows 0.35” to 0.50” in the valley and up to 0.60” in our mountains.  Most of this precip will fall between this afternoon and tomorrow evening.  I expect most of the county to get 0.20” to 0.40”.
NBM precip through Tuesday at midnight shows 0.35” to 0.50” in the valley and up to 0.60” in our mountains.  Most of this precip will fall between this afternoon and tomorrow evening.  I expect most of the county to get 0.20” to 0.40”.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8097 / 19464430 / 1960

My next update will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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