Pretty quiet today – more active Wednesday & Thursday…

A smoky sunrise.  Pic taken 8/17/2021

Loving the bumper crop of sunflowers but could do without the smoky sunrise.  Pic taken 8/17/2021

Tuesday – 17 Aug 2021 – 8:40am

Overall situation…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 77 and the low this morning was 45. The peak wind at the airfield yesterday was 24mph.

Precip yesterday was a dud for most of us.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip are pretty limited this morning. The winner was 0.03" near Chromo.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports are pretty limited this morning – reminder: 0.00″ is a valuable report too! The winner was 0.03″ near Chromo.
NWS mesonet 24-hour precip shows the upper Blanco the lottery winner with 0.07”.  I expected more.
NWS mesonet 24-hour precip shows the upper Blanco the lottery winner with 0.07”.  I expected more.

The upper level high has weakened into a ridge and moved farther east. The weak trough moving through northern Utah today will break down the ridge even more which will open the door for a stronger system to move through our area Wednesday and Thursday.  By Friday, drier air and more stable conditions will move in behind the system leading to fewer showers and thunderstorms.

Satellite this morning shows the weakening ridge to our northwest and drier air today.  The trough currently over WA and OR will impact us Wednesday and Thursday.
Satellite this morning shows the weakening ridge to our northwest and drier air today.  The trough currently over WA and OR will impact us Wednesday and Thursday.
Smoke has increased in our area behind the trough that moved through yesterday. Most of the smoke is coming from fires in California.
Smoke has increased in our area behind the trough that moved through yesterday. Most of the smoke is coming from fires in California.

My forecast…

Today… Will be pretty quiet with a spotty thunderstorm or two possible, mostly over the mountains. Storms will move west to east. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid-80s and lows will be upper 30s to upper 40s. Afternoon winds will peak less than 20mph, though higher gusts are possible if you see a big dark cloud nearby.

Wednesday and Thursday… Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase through Wednesday afternoon and continue off and on through much of Wednesday night. Thursday afternoon will also be active.  Storms will be capable of quick bursts of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Temps Wednesday will peak in the lower to upper 70s and lows will be mid-40s to the lower 50s.  High temps Thursday will be in the 60s. Afternoon winds will peak around 20mph with isolated gusts up to 40mph possible near showers and thunderstorms.

NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.27” near town and up to 0.50” in our mountains
NWS 72-hour precip shows 0.27” near town and up to 0.50” in our mountains

Friday through Monday… Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be few and far between.  High temps will be mid-70s to the low-80s and lows will be upper 30s to upper 40s.

NBM precip through Monday at midnight shows around 0.50” in the valley and similar amounts in in our mountains.  Most of this precip will fall between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday evening.  The models are in disagreement about precip amounts, but I expect most of the county to get 0.20” to 0.40”.
NBM precip through Monday at midnight shows around 0.50” in the valley and similar amounts in in our mountains.  Most of this precip will fall between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday evening.  The models are in disagreement about precip amounts, but I expect most of the county to get 0.20” to 0.40”.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8090 / 19404429 / 1950

My next update will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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